November 1, 2016

Paging Trump to NJ's 3rd and 6th Cong. districts

As Trump's blue-state tour heads back East, it would be worth a stop in New Jersey, where he was only down 4 points in early September according to the Emerson poll.

Of course, that series also had him down only 3 in Rhode Island, which a more recent poll from Emerson shows has widened into a 20-point lead for Clinton. Something similar may have happened in New Jersey in the meantime, but unlike RI, a stop in NJ could have influence in neighboring eastern PA.

Emerson broke down support by Congressional district, and Trump's greatest margin in districts with large populations, and that are blue counties needed to flip the state, is in the 3rd district (50 to 38) and 6th district (60 to 32).

The 3rd is mainly Burlington County, which is part of the Philadelphia metro area and about 70% white. A rally here could draw people and media interest from the PA side of the Philly metro.

The 6th lies along the northern Shore and lower Gateway regions. It contains New Brunswick and Middletown. District is over 60% white. A rally in the western part of this district would draw fans from the northern red county of Morris, along with nearby red counties in Monmouth and Ocean. Unfortunately not as close to PA.

The make-up and appeal would be highly similar to eastern PA, so the same speech could be given. It's filled with groups who love Trump: white ethnic, Catholic, downsized blue-collars and a nervous suburban middle class that isn't so obsessed with liberal culture war issues, is weary of government corruption, and dreads tax increases. (Earlier post showing that the Mid-Atlantic is the most tax-hating region of the country, and has been since at least the '70s.)

At this point, there's only so much more blood that can be squeezed out of the stones that Trump has visited dozens of times already. It would be worth at least one rally in NJ during a tour of eastern PA.

Downside is a waste of a few hours of Trump's time, upside is boosting support in eastern PA to win that state, and converting NJ into a close state rather than a solid blue state (mandate). And regardless of the Electoral College outcome, a boost to the national popular vote coming from NJ.


  1. Could be complicated by Christie's unpopularity in the state right now, particularly with the trial going on. They'd have to come up with some good excuse for him not to be there but likely Christie being there or not being there would be all that would be talked about.

  2. Have Joe Piscopo stump for Trump instead. He's mulling the idea of running for Governor, appeared on the Alex Jones Show with Roger Stone, has a talk radio show. Upbeat non-ideological guy with the same straight-tawkin' Mid-Atlantic style as Christie, and none of the political baggage.

    Also, make the message non-partisan, about how "We're Democrats, we're Republicans, we're Independents -- folks, this is a movement of all Americans to take back control of our government and our economy."

  3. Trump did have a rally with Hinuds/Indians in Edison a few weeks ago.

    Now if Trump is/was winning the 6th district, a solidly blue one, by that margin, then I think he would have at least a 40-50% chance of carrying the state.

  4. It would be a great follow-up to hold a rally geared toward a general (whiter) audience in the 6th, with someone from the earlier Hindu Republican event to open for him. Not only to further his relationship with them, but reassure white suburbanites that Trump has local Indian support and can't be all that bad.

    I'm sure the suburban whites there treat "my Indian friend" and "authentic Indian food" like others treat Mexican food in California, Texas, etc.

    Edison is in the 6th district. And is 44% Asian (probably mostly Indian).

    BTW, the Hindu GOP event goes to show how Trump is better than Clinton at getting to know local influencers, like Obama did, but unlike Haughty Hillary who assumes that the dark-skinned plebs are already in the bag for her.

  5. a lot of visible trump support in the suburbs of new jersey. i think he could win this state.

  6. "BTW, the Hindu GOP event goes to show how Trump is better than Clinton at getting to know local influencers, like Obama did, but unlike Haughty Hillary who assumes that the dark-skinned plebs are already in the bag for her."

    Very good point. Hear similar, less blunt statements by liberal professional race people, though without acknowledgement of Trump's doing this. But regular people notice.

  7. And it's not a lame "Democrats are the real racists" thing, since Obama's team got to know the key people at a local level. It's simply that Crooked Hillary is a lazy, entitled, wannabe emperor bitch.

    Here's a black Dem strategist washing her hands of Clinton's loss in Florida because Hillary refused to go network with local influencers, and took the closest state in 2012 for granted:

  8. I was hoping the Republicans would be running an uncucked candidate for the 6th Congressional seat. Instead, the guy has a ((( ))) sounding last name and is lukewarm about Trump and his policies. If Trump wins that district on election night, it will be a seat to target come 2018.

    Tom MacArthur, who is the Republican congressman for the 3rd district, is more supportive of Trump and is better on immigration and trade. However, he did campaign with Kasich, so we'll have to see how he develops under Trump.

  9. ICYMI: Trump's Hindu / Hindi ad that will be playing round the clock in NJ:

    He's winning the "Other" ethnic category in the USC poll. The SurveyUSA poll of California has him getting 30% of Hispanics and Asians. They don't have deep generational roots in either party, so they're more willing to take a chance on Trump than blacks are.

  10. Most Sikhs voted for Brexit.

  11. I agree. Trump should make a stop here in New Jersey. Would give me an opportunity to attend a Trump Rally and the publicity will help him in neighboring States

  12. Hi, Agnostic. Do you have an idea when the interview will be complete. No rush. Just want to get a basic idea of the time frame. Your blog is one of the few ones out their that is able to connect politics, culture, and aesthetics, and think outside the box.

    Thanks, Robert

  13. Trump is starting a great trend. He is pushing the GOP in a more populist appeal reaching out to working class whites in rustbelt states. He has a very good chance of winning. Even though he is under the pressure of GOP orthodoxy he is pushing the overton window as far as he can within the current GOP. If he wins, the overton window will be pushed further, and either the GOP will be reinvented into a Nationalist Populist Party, a cross between Perot's old Reform Party and France's Front National. If he looses he can still make a major impact as a media mogal, and possibly start a third party. I think it was a big mistake of his to support tax cuts for the globalist 1% but I understand he has to play the game. If elected I predict he will further go in a economic populist direction.


You MUST enter a nickname with the "Name/URL" option if you're not signed in. We can't follow who is saying what if everyone is "Anonymous."