The depressive cucks and glib libs who constantly harp on the doom-and-gloom (or baseless enthusiasm) about how "demography is destiny" will be pleasantly surprised by Trump's performance in a number of major demographic groups. (All Bush data from the General Social Survey, using most recent year after the election.)
George W. Bush got in the high 50s with whites, and the USC poll shows Trump already there. Bush got in the low 40s with Hispanics, and Trump is already there too. Among blacks, Bush got about 10%, and although Trump is currently around 5%, he was around 15% for an entire month recently. He does well in the Emerson polls with blacks, so I take the 15% to be the ceiling he'll reach.
In any event, the non-white electorate this year will be more Hispanic and less black than it was in 2000 and '04, so we'll do better than Bush did overall.
Bush only got 48% of voters 65+ in '00, and 53% of them in '04. Trump is currently at 55% and surging -- hammering home the word "Watergate" is working wonders to remind older voters just how corrupt, ungovernable, and shameful a hypothetical Clinton White House would be. Since the electorate skews older, this group matters most -- Bush himself actually won the popular vote in '04 because he improved his numbers with old people by 5 points.
Among 35-64 year-olds, Bush got in the mid-50s both times, while Trump is topping out in the high 40s, maybe low 50s if enough cucks switch from Johnson. This is the only age group that he may not do as well as Bush with, because the helicopter parents are concerned with their children rather than the broader community and nation, and Trump hasn't been pushing "family values" at all. He's still winning this group, just not by as much as Bush did.
Among 18-34 year-olds, Bush got around 47% each time. Trump is currently in the mid-40s and steadily rising, so he'll probably do as well in the young group.
Given how much older this electorate will be than before, and how much greater he's doing with the older groups, Trump is easily going to do better than Bush.
Bush got in the high 40s with women both times, while Trump is in the low 40s and steadily rising. He could get to where Bush was, but I'm thinking in the mid-40s is looking more realistic. However, the would-be First Female President is not getting as much of the womens vote as Gore or Kerry did -- they got in the high 40s, while Crooked Hillary is at 48% and falling. The third party vote among women will be much greater this time.
Among men, Bush got 55% both times, and that's right where Trump is. Perhaps he could go up another point or two, but his ceiling has consistently been 55-56%. Gore only got 38% of men, which is where Hillary is now -- and her long-term ceiling is 40%. Kerry did even better at 43%, and he still lost.
This is by far the biggest shift since the Bush wins. He got in the low 50s with people who had a H.S. degree or less, whereas Trump is going to end up at least 5 points higher.
For those with some college, Bush got 54% in '00 and 51% in '04, and Trump will get 51% as well.
For college degree-holders, Bush got around 50% both times, and the Democrats a few points lower, with not much third party support. Now, Hillary is getting 50%, with Trump's ceiling at 40%. That assumes 10% of the college-educated will vote third party, and I don't see that happening. So Trump could end up getting into the mid-40s, though still losing this group.
The demographics that are relevant for the national popular vote are age and sex, which don't vary so much across the states. Trump is doing much better than Bush on both of these dimensions.
The relevance of race varies a lot by state, although here too Trump is poised to do as well or slightly better than Bush.
Education also varies in importance a lot by state, since some metro areas attract most of the college grads, while other entire states are not so heavily burdened with credentialist strivers. This is what makes Colorado the hardest to get for a Republican among the white Mountain states (excluding NM), or the West Coast, or the ACELA corridor along the East Coast.
Not as much of a problem in the Rust Belt, however, which is where the blue states that Trump is actually fighting for are located. Losing the post-grad vote will not deprive him of Michigan, although it would Massachusetts.
The Rust Belt also tends toward the whiter side and the older side (younger people leave in search of greener pastures, and there's not enough of a local boom to attract replacements from outside).
So not only is Trump going to do better in the popular vote, he's going to do better in the Electoral College than the last Republican President. No one can look at the numbers, and the geography, and conclude that Trump will do worse than Bush. And Bush won, so Trump will win -- even more big-league.