November 21, 2016

Where Trump won youth: The future of the re-alignment

In all the talk about the reversals of Democrat dominance in supposedly safe groups, I haven't noticed people talking too much about young voters. According to the exit polls in several states, Trump didn't just improve over the typical Republican, he won them outright.

These just so happen to be key states that flipped from blue to red, and although the flip of the youth vote is not the main factor, it's still part of a broader shift in these former blue states.

This ought to put in serious doubt the comforting mantra that the Bernie people tell themselves: "We're the future". Not in these states, you're not. Where young people are rabid Trump fans, do not count on "winning back the college kids," even with Bernie, and certainly not with pandering crap like Katy Perry and Jay Z concerts.

In de-industrialized, forgotten areas, young people face a rough and bleak-looking future, made even worse if their formerly homogeneous communities are becoming disrupted by immigration. They are willing to ignore the old nostrums that seem to have gotten them into this mess, and are willing to take a risk on the populist and nationalist direction that the Trump movement wants to take the country in.

Nationally, the exit polls show Trump losing the 18-24 year-old vote by about 20 points, the 25-29 year-old vote by about 15 points, and the 30-39 year-olds by about 10 points. Only starting with 40-somethings do the numbers switch to favor Trump.

The expected exceptions are in deep red states, where all age groups vote red. Even in some red states, though, it is the middle-aged and older groups that carry the state red, while young people vote blue (like Georgia).

In two usually blue states, Pennsylvania (now red) and New Hampshire (narrowly blue), Trump performed according to the national numbers among the 25-29 and 30-39 group. Although he didn't win the 18-24 group, he lost them by a much narrower margin than nationally -- 5 points in PA and just 2 points in NH. It's unusual for him to do better among the youngest age group, which suggests the beginning of a generational shift in the populist / nationalist direction.

There's more of a youth surge in Maine. Although Trump lost the 18-24 and 25-29 groups by 8 and 2 points, that's well above the national numbers. And he actually won the 30-39 group by 10 points, even better than his support among older voters. As these 30-somethings enter the numerically heavy middle-aged group, they could push Maine entirely into the red column, and not just in the one Congressional district.

The most interesting exceptions, however, are in the Upper Midwest. Wisconsin voted Republican for the first time since 1984, when the whole country voted Republican. Among the 18-24 group, Trump actually won by 2 points, and only lost by 9 points among the 25-29 group -- both far above the national numbers.

In Minnesota, too, Trump actually won by 5 points among the 18-24 group, and lost by 11 with the 25-29 group. He didn't do as well with older voters as he did in Wisconsin, so he didn't take the state, but it's staggering to see the youngest age group in the most reliably blue state vote for Trump (it famously did not fall during either of the Reagan landslides).

Rounding out the Lutheran Triangle, Iowa showed the greatest youth support for Trump. Although he lost the 18-24 group by 9 points, that's still well above the national numbers, and he won the 25-29 group by a whopping 24 points, as well as the 30-39 group by 10 points. That's even greater support than the 50-and-over voters showed him.

Most people forget the regional cultural breakdown of support for the Nazis in Germany -- it was greatest in the Lutheran dominant regions in the north and east, lying in the low farmland plains. Those people take it and take it and take it -- until they don't, and then they snap. In addition to the rural Lutherans turning their conformism in a nationalist direction, the Upper Midwestern plain is now also seeing the emergence of the Trumpenjugend.

"The cosmopolitans always used to take advantage of our Minnesota niceness. They used to think it was a joke. They are not taking advantage anymore."

21 comments:

  1. So glad to see this because I noticed this, too! I think the guys at hotair.com called attention, but haven't heard anything since.
    ===================
    Is Richard Spencer a CIA or other plant? I don't know if Cernovich thinks this or if the media is just using him as controlled opposition as Mike alleges. Personally lean against, but there's a big enough chance that it might be worth exploring...

    I can make a case against, but will just focus on case for:

    He has never, to my knowledge, posted anything at Steve's, Gregory Cochran's, here, and in all my years, I've never ever heard anybody at said places discussing what Spencer has said on anything. Period. People don't even visit from his site to discuss him, that I've ever seen.

    I've never even heard manosphere guys discuss him. If they have since he became famous, I don't know, perhaps. But the only person I've ever heard discuss Richard Spencer was the late Lawrence Auster who thought he was an anti-Semite neo-Pagan. He especially went on about Spencer's neo-pagan artwork.

    Second, there is a journalist who I'd been wondering may be CIA for the last year. This journalist happens to be a major chronicler of the alt-Right, Spencer most of all.

    Like I said, I can turn around and make a great case for why he is not a plant.

    But I have trouble getting why Spencer and the obsession. A guy you would expect to move more easily within paleocon, rightist circles. He's good-looking and articulate and puts himself out there. Maybe that is all that really is needed.

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  2. I don't follow the white nationalists, but I do know that Spencer is more than just the typical homosexual drama queen, like Milo is to the Young Right crowd.

    Milo isn't constantly trying to get people to sign up for newsletters, press conferences, national conventions, and a catamite inner circle (PHALANX, or as MPC called it, S.P.H.I.N.C.T.R.E). Where is that personal info going?

    I don't know one way or the other what his con is, but it's enough to know he's a closeted flamer. At best he's trying to bugger impressionable morons from the internet, at worst he's undercover researching the radicalization of young white men and the gayness is his bosses' blackmail material.

    Why else isn't he open about it, like Peter Thiel, Bronze Age Pervert, Milo, etc.?

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  3. My motto is is if something doesn't make sense, your information is incomplete, and so little about Spencer and the hubbub over him makes sense.
    All the casual explanations thrown off, they each can mostly fit, but nothing I've found fits completely... The only other explanation which could explain this all is what you alluded to: just a function of his gayness. And that's not something I know enough or have encountered enough to have a feel for.

    I remember when the manosphere came along, what, almost ten years ago now? It started bleeding into Steve's first with Whiskey. Then a few more. Then, well you know what I'm talking about.
    I just don't see anything like that with Richard's movement.

    I'd be curious to know if MPC thinks it's just Richard's gayness. It probably is.

    One other thing. Watching Egg McMuffin made me think that the impetus for his run, almost as much as stopping Donald Trump, was to "Run Against Racism". It made me wonder just how big a faith anti-racism is to the CIA or what have you.

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  4. I can tell you why the Lutheran Triangle is tip of the spear of the Trumpenreich. It's Lutheran Social Service's Refugee Resettlement Program. If you're a typical Minnesotan kid, you spend your formative years in a lily-white community, shell out $50,000 to get a degree in Cubicle Jockeying, only to see your job go to an H1-B Dot-Not-Feather and yourself moving back in to your parent's house so you can afford the 700 dollar a month student loan that you took out. You also notice your neighborhood getting increasingly browner and scarier and yourself hoping that the next time you go to your local mall, it won't be the day that Abdul snaps and decides to cash in on his 72 virgins.

    Kids today are being promised a lot of things by the media and the school system, and they're increasingly finding out that the Government/Lugenpresse Industrial Complex has no intention of giving them as fair a shot as their parents and grandparents have gotten. Why wouldn't they be angry?

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  5. Random Dude on the Internet11/22/16, 5:06 AM

    Tulsi Gabbard met with Donald Trump yesterday. The fact that she met with the President Elect and called the discussion "frank and positive" means that she will have no future with the Democrats who want to make sure that they want no part of Literally Hitler's agenda. She and Joe Manchin might as well defect at this point.

    After she met with Trump, Reddit generated a list as to why Gabbard is almost Literally Hitler herself, including the crime of once dating a Republican politician, and not being 100% positive towards the LGBTLOLWTF community. The left is already laying down the foundation for being a deplorable, the media will eventually catch on and follow suit, especially if she is cooperative with Donald Trump and the Republicans.

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  6. Heh, BAP isn't actually homo, just eccentric, he posts every once in awhile at salo-forum.com if you're interested, https://salo-forum.com/index.php?threads/hbd-wimp-centered-view-of-history.4050/
    Speculation is that Spencer has given up on mainstreaming and is focused on becoming the next David Duke: media go-to white nationalist bogeyman.

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  7. When the young Germanic Millennial Alt-Righters proclaim that "tomorrow belongs to us!"--they really mean it!

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  8. Richard isn't gay. He isn't "controlled opposition," either. Cernovich is just jealous of Richard for getting all the serious media attention. That's what's behind his online meltdown.

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    Replies
    1. Definitely can't rule that out. Blessing and a curse, the ambitious self-promoters.

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  9. Since posting the above, swing even harder against my case.

    Lawrence Auster took him seriously, or at least his ideology, and he was far too intelligent to not have seen something as facile as a plant, ruse.

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  10. Spence is a self-serving publicity hound. Positioning himself as the media's go-to guy for the non-existent WN movement.

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  11. Spencer is 100% gay, whoever can't tell that has zero gaydar. He had and has a gay-whoosh hair-do, he speaks gay, and his hand gestures are gay.

    Bronze Age Pervert isn't? Maybe I'm thinking of, let's see here... Jack Donovan. Point is: why is Spencer closeted, and using beards on top of it?

    I don't really care if he's just an aspiring David Duke publicity whore, or that plus a fed plant. Either way it's bad.

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  12. "I can tell you why the Lutheran Triangle is tip of the spear of the Trumpenreich. It's Lutheran Social Service's Refugee Resettlement Program."

    They do this in many other places, though, without a youth revolt. West Coast and Southwest is far worse. And then there are places with nary a non-white to be found, yet kids are not fools about "Welcome new neighbor" (West Virginia, Appalachia).

    There's an immigration angle to it, but the pattern is more clearly Rust Belt / de-industrialized / loss-of-greatness, rather than simply "immigrants stealing our jobs".

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  13. My thoughts on the phase we've just entered...

    We're in the driver's seat, the Right, that is, and our focus needs to turn inward on fostering relationships with our allies, the regular Republicans. We're in the doing phase now. Get as much good legislation passed as humanly possible.

    The pundits on our side see the liberals in their field as their natural colleagues. Near term, I think/hope we can change this at least somewhat if we prove ourselves formidable in accomplishing goals. This will go a long way in the future.

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  14. "She and Joe Manchin might as well defect at this point."

    They come from historically Democrat states, where you have to run as one in order to get elected.

    I can see Manchin switching at some point, since WV has gone red for a generation. But not Gabbard. And it's good for now if she stays Dem and gives her relationship with the Trump movement a bipartisan coming-together feel.

    "After she met with Trump, Reddit generated a list as to why Gabbard is almost Literally Hitler herself"

    It was a great move by Bannon / Trump in order to drive a wedge between the factions in the Dem civil war. With so many public acts like this, you can't hide your allegiances and are forced to take sides.

    Even Emma Vigeland, who has been the least charitable toward Trump-ism among the progs, wrote two tweets defending Gabbard's cooperation on shared goals. Each got over 1K likes, so it resonates with the Trump-hating progs. Obviously the open-minded ones were halfway optimistic about Trump to begin with.

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  15. Bernie himself now giving cover to his youth supporters that it's OK to say "the hell with ID politics" and focus on class and government instead.

    Basically, What good does it do for a black/woman CEO to ship jobs overseas? Women, gays, and people of color can destroy the working class just as well as men, straights, and whites.

    The SJW faction seems hell-bent on isolating themselves into a purity cult. Some of them even emphasize that they've reached a higher state of awareness than the slumbering impure masses -- calling themselves "woke".

    Michael Tracey just got into a scuffle with Woke Twitter for not obsessing over terminological purity, and he's been on a tear at how alienating they behave even toward would-be allies.

    For now, people like him will rationalize their divorce as not wanting to stay with the bad blacks (went to college to major in Africana Studies, possibly earning six figures as diversity hire), while still wanting to do right by the good blacks (working-class who don' care 'bout any o' dat pseudo-intellekshual sheeeit).

    Still, that means they now no longer conceive of blacks as an entirely sacrosanct group beyond any criticism. Not just individuals being up for criticism, but whole sub-groups like the Woke crowd.

    With that new mindset of blacks being just another group of people, there goes blind worship and alliance with them on the Left.

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  16. If Spencer has the goods, then why haven't I heard much from him? And why is he a MSM darling? Jared Taylor's air of cosmopolitanism (Asian fetishist, from genteel Virginia) and not terribly masculine affect means that he's allowed to occasionally appear in the MSM, but even he doesn't get the play that Spencer is getting.

    Steve Sailer, who is a sincere right wing populist, almost never is given the limelight since he's amiable and unpretentious and therefore would do way too much to normalize nativism and race realism. But his insight into the FUBAR of the last 50 years is so reliable that he seems to have a massive closet readership among elites who don't want to be in a conformist left-wing echo-chamber 24/7.

    Spencer does seem to be another goof-ball like Duke. a narcissistic caricature of an insecure nerd. It's going to be tougher to maintain the credibility of right-wing populism, in the eyes of fence sitters, if the narrative can produce whackjobs like Spencer. Whether he's a spook, or a patsy, or genuinely independent is besides the point.

    Just the same, the left is producing so much madness that it's going to take more than Spencer to stop us. Again, whether the radical left is contrived or sincere is irrelevant.

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  17. Yeah, Woke Twitter is trying so hard to unify the troops into a bloc to form an all-out assault on Trump so they can ride high into 2018 against a lame duck.

    The logic behind stopping Trump on broadly popular, populist proposals in order to endure democrats to people escapes me.

    The hunt for Nazis is to stop the defection and prove identity politics is still salient.

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  18. "I can tell you why the Lutheran Triangle is tip of the spear of the Trumpenreich. It's Lutheran Social Service's Refugee Resettlement Program."

    'They do this in many other places, though, without a youth revolt. West Coast and Southwest is far worse. And then there are places with nary a non-white to be found, yet kids are not fools about "Welcome new neighbor" (West Virginia, Appalachia)."

    Maybe I never tried that hard to convey it or wasn't that consciously aware of it, but it seems to me now that the non-yuppie/non-transplant whites of the Upper Midwest have felt frustration towards the corporate elites and swply dorks building for years. The Dems made their bones here by emphasizing that the GOP was the party of globalist traitors. Now that the GOP is in command of economic populism, they've won over the Little Guys. Besides, the cultural conservative warriors (of whom there's a decent amount in the Midwest) have been getting alienated from the Dems the past 25 years to boot. Economic populism (less wage competition, a reasonable safety net, crackdown on lobbyists, etc.) + reassuring cultural conservatives (limiting abortion, tracking Muslims, siding with police, etc.) = Midwest dominance.

    I think the defensive posture has been started for a lot of whites in the Mid-Atlantic (Ellis Island tough guys who fought for several generations to earn respect), South (Scots-Irish who don't want to cede America to tranny-lovers), and Midwest (efficient Teutons are tired of civic chaos) recently. New England is too insulated from modern excesses, or perhaps just too culturally elitist liberal, to be of much use. The Pacific states are so full of hipster doofuses, immigrants, and transplants that we're talking a generation of Trumpian progress and nihilist de-programming before they'd go GOP again.

    Colorado might be verging on a similar level of BS, but what do ya do? Chase the yuppies out of the ski resorts? Another thing about Colorado is that it was never THAT white. And it's not gotten better as it's now about 69% white. Browns and yellows follow the vanguard of white strivers.

    In the deracinated and ever changing places that you start to find on the Plains, which become more common the further West you go, whites don't have enough memories and traditions of ancestors staking their claims and standing their ground. One thing Sailer gets wrong is the idea that reforming the West and some of the South is important for assisting strivers. Actually, many Easterners don't want to abandon their roots just 'cuz they might get more hipster points or more money (which ultimately is pointless since striver heavy areas have a higher cost of living anyway).

    There just isn't that much communal vigilance among strivers and areas with a history of demographic instability (or not many people at all). It's often said that the biggest elites are more pre-occupied with foreign elites than their own co-nationals. For a reason.

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  19. "Steve Sailer, who is a sincere right wing populist, almost never is given the limelight"

    He's not a populist, which is why he stayed out of the Trump movement for most of the campaign. He was holding out more hope for Rubio or even Bloomberg winning.

    His motto was (is?) "cognitive elitism". Along with Charles Murray and the other race realists. They were elitist and nativist, not populist and nativist.

    What do native white citizens get out of elitism? Nothing, unless you're a yuppie living in a mega-metro, who without hordes of darkies no longer has to pay big bucks to live in safety and send your kids to good schools.

    Nativism requires populism, and vice versa. Race realist cosmopolitan yuppies -- what kind of demographic base is that? You'll mobilize all of a few hundred people around the country.

    The white working class is the base, and they're getting just as screwed over by their white managerial elite downsizing and off-shoring, as they are by whatever immigrants are moving in -- and in many areas, they aren't moving in. Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin, non-Philly Pennsylvania -- these are all mostly free of Hispanics or other immigrants, and their only non-white population is black citizens who moved out of the South around 100 years ago.

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  20. HBd nerd-ism isn't going anywhere. Like you said, when push came to shove, people like Murray sided with NRO et al. Regarding Spencer, his Elvira cave troll beard is leaving him, so maybe he and Donovan should rebrand the alt-right as homowhite nationalism: GRIDS Right.

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