This is the third time that Trump's lead has placed clearly outside of the 95% confidence interval (gray area), the earlier times being his Convention bump, and the wicked witch's collapse on 9/11 making people think that she would die before hypothetically taking office.
Notice that her lead, even when she's had it, has never placed outside of the 95% CI, although it came close during her post-Convention bump. She has quite simply never been the decisive favorite in the race.
Now with the re-opening of the FBI investigation into her email server, and the public awareness that the FBI is also investigating the Clinton Foundation -- and by extension, everyone connected to Clinton world -- people are again thinking that she'd be effectively dead on arrival.
The historical models (Norpoth, Lichtman) had already predicted a win for the opposition party, so what these key events do -- Convention, collapse, FBI investigations -- is give people a rationalization to latch onto, in order to consciously justify their gut-level intuition that they don't want four more years of the incumbent party and its failures (Obamacare, ISIS, TPP, etc.).
This latest development could be making things worse than just providing a rationalization for pre-existing anxieties, though, as it is bringing to light a catastrophic failure that people had not even been aware of over the past four years -- the corruption galore at the highest levels of government, with the incumbent party's nominee herself being at the very center of it all.
After the last surge relating to Clinton's collapse, there was a correction when people saw her somewhat out-and-about and not on life support in a hospital bed. Will people correct their initial panic this time? It seems hard to believe that it will come back down to where it was, since Clinton -- and Clinton Inc. -- will be under FBI investigation indefinitely, and any news will be bad news.
This time there's no way they can just shoot her up full of drugs and parade her around in public for a debate to assuage the fears of the voters. She's been knocked down, and she won't be getting back up anytime soon (if at all).
It's also hard to believe there won't be any recovery -- don't underestimate the extremely partisan polarization that exists in the electorate today, where her supporters could wave away Hillary going on a shooting spree in a mosque using bullets smeared in bacon grease.
Still, this latest disaster may have shaved a full point off of her ceiling of 45%.
The best part lately has been all of the pouty exasperated pleas for civility and decorum from the side that has been running the dirtiest, foulest, emptiest campaign in history.
Welcome to the jungle, baby -- you're gonna DIIIIIEEEEE
BTW, I wouldn't pay much attention to the early / absentee voting stuff. It's in the mainstream media and the Trump supporters online, but it's not really a separate event from Election Day.
ReplyDeleteJust wait and see what happens then -- there's no way we're losing OH or FL or NC if we're up 48 to 42 nationally. We've got several blue states in the bag, too -- which ones, that will be revealed on Electoral Christmas. No opening the presents early!
(Not very helpful anyway -- no different from analyzing the results from votes cast earlier on Election Day while the later-in-the-day votes have yet to come in.)
Good thing I predicted a 5 point gap in your other post!
ReplyDeleteI do expect it to "normalize" a bit because eventually the avalanche of bad news will let up a bit. With supposedly a Project Veritas video, more Wikileaks, and more bad news with the FBI investigation, it's unlikely she will come close to being too far into the margin of error.
Of course I'm just being cautious with that. Her campaign seems to be collapsing and she once again tried to push a narrative about Trump being a Russian puppet that even the New York Times dismissed. It may just be that she has run out of energy and will just keep losing in the polls and end up 7-8 points behind in the end. With Trump holding a big rally in Wisconsin yesterday with Walker, Preibus, and Giuliani, he wouldn't spend time on that kind of appearance if there wasn't evidence that Wisconsin may be up for grabs. Would be nice if Minnesota aka New Somalia came uncomfortably close for the Democrats.
I'm a little worried about Nevada.
ReplyDeleteHillary is up 32,000 there (as of this morning) and is on pace to meet Obama's 2012 performance. As we know, Obama beat Romney there easily.
Trump is going to need to need a huge turnout surge there in the next few days.
I also have observed that Pennsylvania and Michigan are not polling as closely as I'd like. Colorado seems very close though and I think Trump has a good shot there.
One variable in comparing early votes to 2012 is that we don't know who early vote Independents are voting for. So even if more Ds have turned in early votes than Rs in NV, that doesn't mean HRC is winning.
ReplyDeleteIn 2012, Romney won Nevada Independents by 7%.
According to CNN's Nevada poll released today, Trump is winning Nevada Independents by 27% (and winning the poll by 6%).
"Early Voting is a poor predictor of Final Results"
ReplyDeleteI didn't read this at all but if a mainstream outlet will post this you shouldn't really worry about early results, BlueWave. We should be worrying about a possible fixed election though.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2016/11/02/early_voting_a_poor_predictor_of_final_results.html
Shaved a whole point off Hillary's ceiling?! Hah, the hammer is about to drop on Hillary. I'm liking my 60-40 split more and more.
ReplyDelete