July 19, 2016

Generational cycles in ethnic conflict

In the last post, we saw that blacks act out against police as a form of anti-white resentment, instead of anti-authoritarianism as some naive civil libertarian types may believe. The take-home message was that to get to a more pacified police force, there needs to be a minimum of strife between demographic groups -- particularly different ethnic groups.

Shutting off immigration and repatriating illegals would go a long way to preventing future ethnic conflict, so restricting immigration ought to be a top priority for anyone who wants to eventually de-militarize the police.

But what about ethnic conflict involving those who will be staying here, like blacks? As in the 1960s, they are in the process of escalating collective violence against white people as a monolithic group, where the police are targeted for being the armed guards of the real group of interest (white people).

Unlike Mexican illegals, we're not going to be able to ship blacks out of the country in order to prevent the growth of ethnic conflicts in the future.

I think the only thing that's going to change the minds of blacks is to witness and experience a massive crackdown on their criminals. Race relations were generally amicable during the Great Compression because there were widespread race riots targeting blacks circa 1920, and neither side wanted to go through that ever again.

Sadly, once the next generation had not experienced the nadir of race relations, they were naive about how bad things could get by pushing black vs. white resentment. They would grow up to be the Civil Rights generation, which would plunge the nation back into a lawless and therefore heavy-handed police state circa 1970.

The people who experienced that most recent nadir during their formative years -- the Boomers -- are generally wary of stoking black vs. white tensions. Even if they're liberals, and even if they're black, they don't want another Watts Riot, or another assassination campaign against today's MLK, Malcolm X, and so on. They feel that chaos to be an embarrassing stain on the liberal banner, and they want to avoid promoting liberalism in a way that would only further stain it with an association of widespread ethnic conflict.

However, Gen X-ers and Millennials are too young to remember the ethnic explosions of the late '60s and early '70s, so they don't apply the brakes when they sense race relations moving in a more hostile direction. Especially the Millennials, who are too young to even remember the L.A. Riots of 1992, which was a relatively minor and isolated case compared to the conflagration of the 1960s.

Peter Turchin has found that outbursts of collective political violence appear in cycles of roughly 50 years. If the last peak was 1970, then we're due for another one in the near future -- caused by naive and reckless Millennial blacks who have no idea what they're about to bring down upon themselves in response.

Only after that will race relations improve, and the police force will moderate more in the Mayberry direction. Until that happens, though, it will be counter-productive to push hard for the de-militarization of police on "citizens first" grounds. Right now the zeitgeist is not about citizens vs. the state, but one ethnic group vs. another.

This is a cyclical solution whose dynamics largely play out on their own, not a permanent solution that can be carried out willfully like a repatriation of illegal immigrants. Although there will be recurring waves of collective black vs. white conflict, at least there are 50 years in between peaks, and at least the de-escalation happens more or less "on its own" at the grassroots level and does not require social engineering.

A more permanent solution would take the form of segregating blacks and whites at the regional level within the country, so that they had their own contiguous region and we had ours. For example, they could take the lowland Deep South where the highest concentration of blacks has existed since they first were brought there as slaves.

I'm not convinced that this regional separation would actually prevent ethnic conflict like sending the Mexicans back to Mexico. Blacks vs. white conflict would just take the form of a region vs. region conflict, like Northerners vs. Southerners. It may be that we're going to have widespread black vs. white conflict once every 50 years, and that what we need to work on is not preventing it but preparing for and dampening its effects when we know stormy weather is looming on the horizon.


  1. Not being able to export the blacks, unlike the Mexicans and others, is why California and the Southwest have a bright future, and why the South and Eastern Seaboard are screwed.

  2. Careful now, we might lighten our load and send some lovely diversity your way...

  3. Will the ongoing rise in interracial marriage have any effect on these cycles or not?

    We've got 1/7 marriages being mixed and even if things somehow stall at 1/5 being mixed marriages like Brazil that's alot of mixing.

  4. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_California

    "Comparatively, according to the 2007 American Community Survey, 42.6 percent of California's population older than five spoke a language other than English at home, with 73 percent of those also speaking English well or very well, while 9.8 did not speak English at all"

    How do we clean this mess up? What kind of pecking order is their for the "right" to stay in Cal anyway? Mexicans and Chinese could say that they've been here for 100+ years.

    NW Euros tamed Cal and it's various waves of people. During the progressive era of 1900-1940 and low striving period of 1940-1980 it became a great place. The post 1980 enthusiasm for immigration and multi-cult has done a lot of damage. How does it get repaired? Cali. attracts the most liberal strivers. We're gonna get a lot more shit from the yellows/mestizos/semites in Cali than in other places. Whites are gonna have to grow a backbone to take things back. How do we go about this? Pass an alien/sedition type act that would make it illegal to obstruct the forceful expulsions of ethnic groups? Would anyone openly declare Asians/Arabs/Mestizos to be a threat that needed to be expelled?

    Getting rid of illegals is relatively easy. But what about 2nd/3rd/4th generation irregular Americans? We would have to have a powerful/openly racialist (fascist, really) leadership willing to openly favor whites over other groups. The cloaked racialism of anti-crowding codes, worker dignity protections, and public order enforcement would certainly halt the expansion of irregular Americans. As would a return to pre 1960 racial mores that would lead to white institutions looking out for whites primarily. But how many neighborhoods would remain brown or yellow? I suppose racially concious whites could band together and simply pay irregular Americans to leave, ideally to their homeland. I dunno about that, given the history of white association with mestizos in particular in the Western US. Trump is polling pretty low in Colorado/Utah. Rugged my ass.

    It goes without saying that the Eastern US is in better shape. The more "racist" people back East will be more receptive to deporting irregular Americans (of which there are fewer in the Eastern US especially outside of Bos-Wash) . Than get cracking on dealing with pain in the ass Northern blacks once and for all. Either the North finally develops living arrangements that keep the peace between whites and blacks, or blacks (via whites re-developing racial consciousness and taking matters into their own hands) are pushed into the low-land South and Florida.

    Perhaps things have degenerated to the point that we need to threaten/beat/imprison/exile deraceinated whites, who are the biggest problem. White people are numerous and strong enough to deal with the hordes, but white liberals have the money/influence/prestige at this point to keep white racialists muzzled. Jews would be first, obviously.

  5. Large parts of the "black belt" in the Deep South are being abandoned to blax already, some counties/parishes in Mississippi and Louisiana are close to 90% black.

  6. A lot of the "irregular Americans" are pretty assimilated. There are plenty of 3rd and 4th generation Mexican, Chinese and Japanese Americans here in CA who are generic Americans, no different than the Italian, Polish or Irish that you find in the Midwest and the East. They work as insurance adjusters, cops, in retail, etc.

    Most 3rd and 4th generation immigrants are like our next-door neighbors, blue collar Mexicans from east LA who moved to the suburbs and no longer speak Spanish. The dad was a cholo in his youth, but their kids are Starbucks hipsters, none of them are culturally Mexican.SOME of these folks still maintain ties to the old country. For example, the garden store that we shop has been owned by the same Japanese family since the 1920's, and to this day they still import workers from Japan. Why? I have no idea. But that's pretty rare, our electrician is a Japanese guy and he's got no ties to the old country at all.

    The truth is that most immigrants want to assimilate. Right now, some of them are playing the ethnic grievance game because it pays. But it's all fake. There is no "Brown Power" movement equivalent to the "Black Power" movement, the La Raza types are just faking it to get tenure.

    When we Make America Great Again, assimilation will speed up. The "Brown Power" types will stop faking it, and everyone else will stop speaking their native language in public and start making an effort to join the common culture. This will happen surprisingly quickly and with a minimum of fuss.

  7. "Not being able to export the blacks, unlike the Mexicans and others, is why California and the Southwest have a bright future, and why the South and Eastern Seaboard are screwed."

    Nothing in the South's future could be any worse than the Civil War and Reconstruction. Southern Whites will survive.

    As for California, I was stationed in the old El Toro Marine Air Station years ago. I always felt White Californians lacked...a Civil War and a Reconstruction. What White Californian is going to die to protect his soil? I doubt Whites in California could muster the resistance to vote a majority for Trump in the next election. You guys just have to hope Whites back east have the guts to kick the Mexicans out for you.

  8. California is too important to write off. We're gonna have to do something. I say dump the legal browns into New Mexico and Utah. Utah's Mormon's are embracing the displacement of whites already. Just give 'em more of what they want.

    One tactic is slashing federal benefits to California until demographics improve. We shouldn't continue to subsidize dystopian places. Another is taking away some/most/maybe all of their electoral votes until the state governs more responsibly.

    We saw the San Jose (I think) situation where the brown Chief stood the police down as Trump supporters were mobbed. Clearly the darkening leftoid populace of California deserves a lesson for their ingratitude and treachery. We ought to commence jailing any California lawyer/politician/Law E. official who fails to show sufficient loyalty to old stock Americans. E.G., sanctuary city bullshit that is treasonous rebellion against America. As you might imagine, the Jews aren't going to have fun. Though the few who do have a backbone will give us a good show as they wrestle with California's mostly ultra liberal Jewry.

  9. Joe Schmoe - just about anything looks good compared to blacks. Except virulent diseases and waste products, I guess. It's kind of a cop-out to resort to playing the black card though. Sure, historically white Americans have had closer and more amicable relations with Am. Indians, Asians, Mexicans etc. than with blacks. But whites produced the greatness of Western civilizations. You need 1st world people to have a 1st world country.

    Besides, I'd rather honor my ancestors by protecting their blood via segregation, freedom of the races to do as they wish so long as it's among their own kind, and strict immigration laws. Of course, racial consciousness is much higher in the East and among belligerent/clannish whites (like the Scots Irish) so maybe this sort of a thing will always be a tough sell out West.

    Several generations of Asians and Hispanics in America may produce productive and friendly people. But they still aren't as amiable, law abiding , and creative as whites. America may never be a truly white country. With that in mind, we might as well try as best we can to keep America as it was before the 70's. White, black, and red with a small minority of browns. Give whites the lion's share of the country with most Indians confined to plains and desert reservations (with the whiter and/or more conscientious ones living among whites) while blacks ideally will practice Africa style living in the lowland South/Florida instead of being robbed of vitamin D in shitty Northern ghettos.

  10. Joe- Also, people don't find Mexican or Asian people threatening. They're small, generally speaking, which makes sense as it's better suited to high density living and a chintzy diet. Their small stature and retiring personalities mean that they tolerate insults to their dignity that whites and blacks don't. Sailer has long suspected that the rootless cosmopolitan elite longs for a population that tolerates being treated like shit. They got tired of white and black people protesting dangerous conditions and demeaning wages. Quite frankly it's rather disturbing to see so many liberal whites buy into the idea that browns and yellows performing shit jobs for shit pay is some kind of mana from heaven.

    What started out as colorful experiment by Silents who craved excitement has become a dystopian horror cynically exploited by the managing class. We're gonna owe Boomers if Trump wins. Many of them are tired of the bullshit they've endured for the last 40 years.


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