February 21, 2016

Unstoppable: Trump has twice the share of delegates as his share of the popular vote

Now that Trump has crushed yet another primary, there's lots of concern trolling going around about how he still can't win with "only" 35% of the vote. And there's even wimpy depressive supporters (probably from out West) who are falling for it. Do not snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

The trouble for this scare story is that the nomination does not go to whoever gets a majority of the popular vote. It is who gets the majority of delegates to the national convention, and these delegates are sent from each state. These delegates are what is up for grabs in the state's primary or caucus.

Some states have proportional representation, and other states have winner-take-all. Some delegates are won through the vote at the statewide level, and others through the vote at the level of each Congressional district. See this table for how many delegates each state has (total, statewide, district), and what the rules are for securing them.

On Super Tuesday, there are a bunch of proportional contests, where Trump will clean up, although not as totally as he did in South Carolina, where there were winner-take-all rules for both the statewide and district delegates. While not winning over 50%, Trump still won every Congressional district and the state overall, so he got 100% of the delegates at stake.

After Super Tuesday, more of these winner-take-all states come into play, including ones with a yuge chunk of delegates up for grabs, like Florida and California, although most of their delegates are at the district level. Still, when you add up all the smaller and medium states with winner-take-all delegates, it looks very favorable to Trump, even if he does have a ceiling below 50% of the popular vote.

Let's just check the difference between how much of the popular vote a candidate has won, and how much of the delegate pool that has translated into:

Popular %, delegates %

Trump___: 34, 70
Cruz____: 22, 11
Rubio___: 21, 10
Kasich___: 09, 05

Trump has twice as large of a share of the delegate pool as his share of the popular vote would have gotten him under a purely proportional system. Each of the cucks has only half of the number of delegates that their popular vote numbers would have gotten them.

Sure, as we get into states west of the Mississippi yet inland from the Pacific, the apocalyptic cult guru will pick up a larger share of delegates than he currently has. And there will be Establishment bastions on the West Coast and throughout the Northeast that will go for the foam party robot.

But Trump is already at 70% of the delegate pool, and there simply aren't enough delegates up for grabs for the other two -- the frontier preppers only show up in decent numbers in Texas (which is not winner-take-all, so they can't leverage a narrow plurality into a total sweep), and the country club yuppies are only dotted around the major cities. Reminder: foam party robot won the two Establishment stronghold cities in South Carolina (Columbia and Charleston) but still lost the districts that they belong to.

The cucks are also in for a rude awakening about how non-Establishment the Republicans are in the Great Lakes, Northeast, and Mid-Atlantic. Today's Establishment hails from the Sun Belt and reflects its laissez-faire, anti-government norms. Trump's highest level of dominance over the other candidates is found in the Rust Belt and New England, where the cucks are naively assuming that just because they're blue states, they'll mostly go for Rubio. Fat chance. With such overwhelming support in the Northeast, even in the proportional states it's possible for Trump to clear 50% and take all the delegates.

Who knows, perhaps Trump's delegate share will decline -- but by 20 percentage points? Doesn't seem too likely, especially with each victory making wishy-washy voters less anxious about voting for someone "who can't win".

That said, we shouldn't rest on our laurels, since winning by the largest margin will provide the most compelling mandate -- ditto for the general election. We need to leave no doubt in the Establishment's minds that the elitist and globalist ways are over with, and now it's all about populism and nationalism.

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