November 20, 2013

Speculations on the coming race riots

For the last several years, the media have been ignoring the racially motivated attacks by blacks against whites. But now that Jews are being targeted in Brooklyn, it's time to take the matter seriously (e.g., this article).

Clueless conservatives might try to find a silver lining here:

"Well, at least some good is coming from the never-ending paranoia and obsession that Jews have about anti-Semitism -- it gives the mainstream media a politically correct veneer to finally get out the message about dark thugs knocking out random whities."

Guess again -- the fact that only Jewish victims get press is a symptom of the underlying disease, whereby white victims of black crime get no sympathy, and the race of the attackers is scrupulously kept secret by the media. Only if it's another minority group do we hear anything, and even then it has to be a verbally combative minority group.

Although violent crime has been falling for the past 20 years, there has been a rise in a certain qualitative type of violence, namely where the victim is a stand-in for the entire group that they come from, and the attacker is bitter at and lashing out against that group -- any representative of the group will serve as a target for their anger. It's part of the broader trend toward polarization and political instability; see Peter Turchin's series of posts under the heading of "Indiscriminate Mass Murder as a Form of Political Violence" in this review post.

He's talking more about spree shootings, but blacks punching out randomly chosen whites is an equally good example of the general pattern.

Based on the rise-and-fall pattern of such violence over the past 200 years, he predicts that a peak or spike is headed our way sometime during the 2020s. (Looking historically at homicide rates, I predict a rise in violent crime around the same time. The two cycles are separate, so sometimes they'll be in phase and sometimes out of phase.)

Blacks are therefore already getting a running start, antagonizing whites as long as they feel they can get away with a slap on the wrist. Tempting fate like that will make it hard to feel sorry for them when whites eventually start fighting back, perhaps igniting a wave of lynchings and race riots not seen since the explosion of the late 1910s and early '20s.

Aside from predicting what time things will get out of control, can we also predict what geographical regions will be hit hardest? Definitely -- look at where all of these "knockout" games are taking place. They're mostly in a band from the Midwest eastward through the Bos-Wash corridor. Not in the Deep South, not in the Mountain West, and as far as I know not yet on the West Coast (though it wouldn't be hard for them to spread there).

Those are the areas that have the strongest roots in the culture of settled farmers, primarily the culture of law. Some punk knocks out a perfect stranger in a hate crime -- how do you respond there? Feel sorry for the legacy of slavery, the culture of poverty, and the absence of parents that led this wayward black to indiscriminate assault. Send him to juvie for awhile, then let him out when he promises that he's really sorry.

Blacks aren't stupid, they know they can get away with so much more disrespect and confrontation in those places. Those were also the main places in the 1960s and '70s that were shaken by race riots (i.e. by blacks).

In an earlier post, I showed that what keeps blacks in line is not the Saxon-Scandinavians and their culture of law (which only encourages blacks to fuck around with strangers), but hell-raisin' Celts and their culture of honor. When you're surrounded by hawk-nosed hillbillies who aren't afraid to go to jail in order to defend the community, it makes you think twice about starting shit with strangers in the first place.

And after the whole thing blows over, the namby-pambys will say, "Welp, guess that's the occasional price we have to pay in order to enjoy a civilized law-abiding culture, and not end up like those poor hicks in Kentucky and West Virginia." Right, there's too much atomization in the legalistic areas for anyone to feel an altruistic drive to break the silly little law if it means keeping or restoring harmony in the broader community.

As Turchin's writings on these topics show, political / indiscriminate violence is linked to rising inequality. So for the long term, it's better to keep inequality from rising. But that is mostly a function of a change in the mindset and behavior of the elites, not of those at the grassroots. The elites are the ones over-producing themselves, socializing costs while privatizing benefits, and locked in internecine status contests. What can the hicks in Kentucky do about that?

In the short term, the correct response is not to wring our hands about "addressing the root causes that lie in economic inequality," but to strike back at those who are spreading disorder. Reducing inequality, while desirable and helpful over the long term, won't be achieved overnight. Meanwhile the legacy of slavery is at your door -- tonight -- trying to break in and "rightfully take back what the white man stole from my ancestors."

I wouldn't stress the importance of being armed in the unlikely event of self-defense either. It's too late by the time you face that choice. The hordes are already roaming your neighborhood at that point, and you're shivering alone in your cocoon. You want to make sure they don't even think about setting foot in your community. That requires social organization with your fellow community members, and sending clear warning symbols that would-be hate criminals will be overwhelmed by a bloodthirsty mob before they can escape back to wherever they came from.

It's the same thing that keeps skinheads from going into the Bronx if they felt like messing around with blacks. "Shit, if those honky-ass skinheads came in here, we'd woop they ass all the way back to the suburbs."

Sometimes you have to fight fire with fire.


  1. I'm Scots-Irish, and were I come from there is a saying: "Shoot, shovel and shut up."

  2. How do you think Hispanics and Asians will fit into the picture?

  3. That would make a very powerful warning signal, a banner at the town limits that reads "Welcome to Kirkville -- We Don't Rat On Community Defenders."

  4. Asians won't play much of a part one way or another. They're too small, and unlike Jews are not given to verbal confrontation, airing grievances, etc.

  5. Agnostic, you should write something about South Asians sometime.

    By the way, blacks seem to have a high incarceration rate in Oklahoma. I would think that having lots of in-your-face white rednecks would keep them in line down there.

  6. Agnostic,

    Layering the inequality gap on top of the crime rate has definitely enriched your analyses and what I've been learning has been exciting. Some of the things that were stumbling blocks to people accepting some of your theories have been removed.

    I'm not going to derail this thread, but would love you to look into this sometime: I have a hypothesis that homeschooling tracks more with rising inequality than with the crime rate and desire to cocoon though I realize how counterintuitive this seems. A change in the mindset of elites along with the inability to afford private/parochial schools. The parochial schools themselves are more on the "prestige" track and geared more toward grooming elites, who may or may not be Catholic or even Christian, than providing a wholesome, religious education to the children of the diocese (the four "Catholic" high schools in my diocese charge 15,000-19,000 per student per year; the only person I know whose kids have attended was my Jewish doctor). There are scholarships, but the only feasible recipients live in the city where all these schools happen to be; suburban and rural kids are left out.
    Anyway, I've had trouble finding the stats that go back to the 70s let alone international stats.
    I have a lot more to say on this subject, and the other aspects, should it ever come up.

  7. I read an article that was so galling: it actually said that knock-out game started about a month ago! (linked from Drudge, New York paper, I think)

    I've always heard people say or allege that Jewish people are at the top of the hierarchy, but have never seen it so starkly made explicit: getting to see with my own lying eyes; what a terrible shame and it makes me sad.

    "I wouldn't stress the importance of being armed in the unlikely event of self-defense either. It's too late by the time you face that choice."

    Yeah, walking around with a gun isn't practical or desirable, but how funny it is that the people who have guns at home or in their car, where they're useless in such situations, are still the ones least likely to be messed with!
    It's all coincidental, I tell ya.

  8. BTW, I just want to add that I love my Jewish doctor and he is a very good man who himself isn't typical of the "elites". He loved so much the character of his Catholic friends growing up that he vowed his own children would attend those schools. He is religiously observant, but still sent his kids to the Catholic schools rather than the Jewish ones; when they were in high school *his commute to take them to school and pick them up totaled over about an hour and a half and he did this for years*. In short, he was obsessed with the development of their moral character.
    He married a non-Jew and chose to leave the Northeast for the rural Deep South and it suits him very well (I didn't know his ethnicity for five years! Than again, Southerners have no "Jewdar").

  9. Notice in the article it was not a hate crime, it was a "bias crime." fuckers

  10. The Western culture of the rule of law itself seems to have a lot to do with honor.

    It's a lot about having a fair battleground for men to put their case forward as individuals, and fighting it out according to the rules, unlike "cheap" and honor-less hillbilly bushwhacking, where a gang come together and ambush their rivals. People have access to a fair process and can fight their case.

    Same for Western individualism - the man who doesn't stand alone is dishonorable. As in duelling.

    Part of this though, is the willingness for a strong constabulary to come together and put the hammer down on the silly little gangs of "honor", who'd try and wimp out of direct man on man individualistic conflict and get together some little "posse". The West used to have this, but today what we have left may not be enough.

  11. Kentucky sucks (trust me, I live there), but perhaps the local denizens do have more of a survival instinct(at least in the really hickish eastern part of the state).

    Dahlia hit the nail on the head; I never detected my fellow Southerners having much in the way of a "Jewdar." They blend in and aren't readily noticeable unless you know what to look for. And they're not the ones committing the crimes (at least not blue collar crimes), so who cares about Jews, right? That's the mindset of a typical southerner. And yet to them, anti-Semitism is this huge problem.

    About the self-defense thing: I agree, I would never want to be involved in a situation where I would be compelled to use a gun. Sounds like a total nightmare. Then I'd worry about any potential "dirt" the authorities would dig up on me. Time to delete my browsing history, haha!

  12. These seem to be gang initiation rights. They call it "Polar Bear Hunting" for the obvious reason. What is more likely to happen is that more whites will move away from communities where these crimes are happening, taking their taxable and disposable incomes with them. That's what happened during the last crime wave (it was called "white flight").

  13. History's not just going to repeat itself.

    Things have changed.

    Mexicans and other Hispanics outnumber blacks. Even if they play little active role in these disturbances, simply by being their in cities they'll act as a buffer.

    The black middle class has moved out of the ghetto. Black communities were more socioeconomically integrated in the past. Not anymore.

    Whites already avoid predominately black communities, even now two decades after the crime wave. They haven't forgotten how dangerous it is.

    Race relations have improved enormously.

    Demography - the population is older than it was. Violent crime is a young man's game.

    All these factors mean that future race riots in the 2020's or whenever will be much more modest in scale than it was a generation ago, regardless of the daydreams of race men.

  14. These seem to be gang initiation rights. They call it "Polar Bear Hunting" for the obvious reason.

    Polar bears also tend to rip your face off if you bother them. I suppose it's an unconscious nod to the fact that whites could eff the blacks up if we so chose.

    History's not just going to repeat itself.

    Things have changed.

    Mexicans and other Hispanics outnumber blacks. Even if they play little active role in these disturbances, simply by being their in cities they'll act as a buffer.

    The Mex are not a major presence in the northeastern quadrant of the USA where these things are happening. And Caribbean Hispanics (Dominicans, 'Ricans) are more like blacks than are the Mex, who are more like Eastern Europeans. (Mexico and Russia seem to share a surprising amount in common.)

  15. The Puerto Rican community in the northeast is aging. Mexicans are growing at a faster rate than other Hispanic groups and more youthful.

    In as little as a decade, Mexicans could be the top Hispanic population in New York City, displacing Puerto Ricans and Dominicans.

    If Mexicans were prone to race riots, there'd be a problem, considering how young and fecund they are. But thus far, they aren't. Meanwhile most of the rest of the country is aging out of the epoch of mass violence.

    I do however expect more of Turchin's "rampages", i.e. crazed gunmen and bombers.

  16. how do you think New Jersey will fare?


  17. Mexicans will fight back if blacks make trouble in the barrio. If they just burn down the 'hood, or bear up whites, Mexicans won't care.

  18. @ Dahlia -

    The Jews attacked have been hasidim living packed together in Crown Heights, Brooklyn immediately adjacent to a dangerous black neighborhood. A race riot occurred there in 1991, one of many factors that helped to sweep Giuliani into the mayor's office and Dinkins out of it. The hasidim are very close knit, much moreso than secular Jews, and news of knockout attacks would spread through their commmunity quickly. That and the restricted geographic range would allow them to pick up on an uptick in violence more quickly than elsewhere in the city.

  19. In New York City, several black officials have denounced the assaults and called for the assailants prosecution. Even Al Sparpton has come out against the attackers.

  20. Only the total extermination of the Nordic race will bring world peace and unity to mankind.

  21. well, looks like a real riot is taking place at Ferguson. odd that this is happening in the Midwest...

  22. testing to see if my comment got put in spam

  23. Boston and Kentucky have been mentioned. There are Black-on-White attacks taking place there too. A place having many people of Celtic ancestry isn't going to stop Black criminals from behaving horribly. It won't stop people from getting attacked. Louisville is a good example of this. Memphis,TN is another good example. Interestingly, there have been alot of tensions between Blacks and Whites in Boston going back to the 60s. "Hell raising" Whites have not stopped Black criminals. However, the Black middle class is much better behaved. Foreign-born Blacks, of which there are alot of in Massachusetts, often are better-behaved than the underclass segment of the Black American population.

    I will also add this. I believe that the culture in which you find in "rednecks" has not done Black Americans any favors. I've read some literature by Thomas Sowell. Ghetto Black culture and redneck culture are quite similar. Violence, disregard for education, sexual promiscuity, general reckless pride. Consider this. Around the turn of WWI, Blacks in Ohio had higher scores on mental tests than Whites from Kentucky, across the river. That "redneck" culture didn't do Whites any favors, and it certain was damaging to Blacks, 90 percent of whom lived in the South in 1900.


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