But that doesn't mean the coalition holds together forever. When there is enough friction, one member group may break off into a protest party of its own:
Third parties do occasionally achieve national success, but they are short-lived reactions by defectors from one of the two parties, intended to punish the other members of the coalition who have betrayed the defecting group. They realize they will not win the general election as a break-off faction of one of the two parties -- the point is to punish past wrongdoing within the party, and serve as a credible threat against any future betrayal within the party.
Importantly, they are swift responses against the incumbent party -- not delayed grudges.
That's an important point because third parties do not split off from a party that is already the opposition -- only from the incumbent party. Being taken for granted, abused, etc., stings more when you're part of the incumbent party because you aren't enjoying the fruits of victory like the other member groups are.
Once the Trump movement takes office, there could come a time after four or eight years when some of the older and now lesser elements of the coalition will feel slighted, taken for granted, and so on. We need to do our best to keep every group happy so that nobody pulls out -- at least, to the extent that they would jeopardize victory. If only one small state pulled out, and we would otherwise win by a large margin, we'd still win, just by a slightly smaller margin.
But if it's part of a broader discontent, then the coalition could be in serious trouble. For example, the Deep South punishing the Democrats in 1968 for cutting against white Southerners' interests by going whole-hog on the Civil Rights movement.
For the Trump movement, the weakest members are the apocalyptic Judaizers in the Plains and Mountain states, particularly the Mormons. So let's take a look at Utah and see if there are any signs already visible of a splinter movement there.
Right now, Trump is comfortably ahead of not only the Democrat but also the various third-party candidates, of which there are many. That is their main problem -- they are voting against Trump out of a sense of being holier-than-thou, but in what way are they holier-than-thou? There could be any number of traits that they draw that contrast on.
According to polls by PPP, Salt Lake Tribune, and Dan Jones & Assoc., Trump's support is in the high 30s, and Clinton's in the mid 20s. Normally the Republican would go on to win the state with well over 60% of the vote, but Trump is NOT A TRUE CONSERVATIVE.
And yet there is no single candidate who is running away with the 30 points left between Trump and the typical conservative Republican. Libertarian Gary Johnson is polling at 13%, while movement conservative Mormon McCuckin is polling at 10%, and Darrell Castle is at 2% (Constitution Party -- paleocon, theocratic). That still leaves about 10% who are undecided, too.
This is a microcosm of the primaries, where the non-Trump voters were too concerned with tailoring their non-Trump vote to their personal tastes, yielding over a dozen challengers to cater to as many different ideological and personality niches. If they wanted to break away, they had to overlook their personal differences and unite behind just one non-Trump candidate.
At least for now, then, Utah and the region is safe. But it's still something to keep an eye on, and to head off by giving them something in the new Republican Party -- like promising conservative Supreme Court Justices. They may want a more theocratic President, though, not just conservative influence in the courts. They may want weekly performances by a cosplay conservative President (a la Glenn Beck in his cargo cult Oval Office), rather than specific policy changes.
In the event that they did vote for a single third party in the future, that would only remove 13 EC votes. If the re-alignment made Michigan a permanent member of the coalition, that would offset the loss in the Mountain states by 3 votes. To clear 270, we'd need other members in the Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, or New England. It wouldn't be the end of the world. See this earlier post on trading the Mormons for Michigan.
The only big loss that would be hard to make up for if they voted third-party is Texas, but they seem to be a lot less likely to splinter. They seem to want to punish Lyin' Ted rather than encourage him as in Utah. Trump is polling about 5 points higher in Texas than in Utah, and the main enemy is Democrats rather than a motley crew of cuck candidates. After deporting the illegals and anchor babies and their extended families, that ought to pad our margin better still.
It is exciting to be bringing in all sorts of new voters, demographic groups, states, and even regions into the Republican Party -- at least for Presidential races. But we need to be mindful of not letting the older groups feel marginalized, lest they abandon ship. And even if that proves inevitable, we need to be doubly aware of it and begin making up for it elsewhere.