An earlier post showed that Trump only lost the Ohio primary because Kasich, using some mix of the carrot and the stick, managed to corral hundreds of thousands of Democrats to turn out for him.
Because the Democrat primary was fairly boring, these voters would likely have stayed home altogether, and yet not only do they go out to the polling stations, they voted in the other party's primary, and even then for Kasich rather than Trump, Rubio, etc. This makes no sense since the only Republican with crossover appeal has been Trump, and Kasich had no other successes like this one, as though the Democrats in every state were bound to turn out on his behalf just to stop Trump. Democrats were only prepared to stop Trump in the general, not by screwing around with the other party's primary so early on.
The basic finding of that post is that the counties that were deep blue for Obama vs. Romney, suddenly became majority Republican for the 2016 primary. Now, if the outcome were a Trump victory, that would make sense -- all the excitement has been for Trump, and none for Crooked Hillary. Higher Republican than Democrat turnout in the primary stage would simply mean that, as elsewhere, it was the Republican contest that motivated its voters to get involved at the early stage, while the more boring Democrat contest would have left most of its voters sitting at home early on.
But if the beneficiary of the massive turnout for the Republican primary was not Trump but Kasich, who had zero excitement or interest during the primaries anywhere, then it's proof of shenanigans. The chief executive of the state pressured Democrats to turn out to save his ass, since he could not win among Republicans and Independents. Indeed, when you remove the phony voters, Trump would have won Ohio by about 45% to 35% for Kasich.
Now I've uncovered an even more damning piece of evidence. In Summit County, home to Akron and part of the blue northeastern region of Ohio, the Republican primary turnout was greater by far than even the general election of 2012. Turnout in 2012 for Romney in the general was about 100,000 -- and for the Republican primary in 2016, over 150,000. No other county that I've looked at around the nation has shown a higher turnout for this year's primary than last year's general.
No primary is so exciting that it not only captures every single Republican voter from the previous general election, but a further 40-50% increase due to either crossover voters or infrequent voters (who rarely show up for primaries, even when they do come out of the shadows). And this gigantic percentage increase was also large in absolute numbers -- 40-50,000. That's nearly 10% of the entire voting eligible population, and therefore closer to 20% of the regular pool of voters.
Obviously these crossover voters did not show up of their own volition, but because they were pressured by Kasich and the state government, which has control over state employees, contractors, employees for contracting companies, welfare beneficiaries, and so on and so forth. "You're going to turn out to vote for me, or you're going to be out of luck with your job and benefits."
For historical perspective, since 1960 Summit County has only gone red for the re-elections of Nixon and Reagan -- not the original Reagan Democrats who helped him out in 1980, or the blue-collar Nixon voters of 1968. If they couldn't even get on board with those phenomena, they are certainly not going to turn uber-Republican today -- let alone for Kasich of all people! Maybe for Trump's general re-election, but not for Kasich in a measly primary.
I keep re-visiting this topic for two reasons. First, to remind everyone that, during the primary stage, Ohio was Trump country. Second, and more seriously, that Kasich has interfered with the statewide election to stop Trump before -- so what's to say he won't repeat this in the general? Especially considering his continued hostility toward Trump and the Trump movement, and his seemingly veiled threat that "I don't think Trump can win Ohio". What ever could make you so certain of that, AIDS-face? It better not be because you're planning on rigging the election.
All signs point to favorable conditions for Trump among the people of Ohio, but the campaign has to plan on winning other states to make up for a possible rigging of the Ohio election. I know Trump would challenge it, but you don't want it to all come down to a contested election. Best to work on building a greater buffer by camping out in Michigan, Pennsylvania, etc.