August 7, 2017

Trump movement cannot brag about still-worsening economy

Trump is looking for some good news to give the American people hope, and to attack his detractors, given the overall disaster of a nation America has become since Inauguration, thanks to the ever intensifying elite sabotage of Trump himself and the broader populist-nationalist movement.

There is a widening Deep State coup in plain sight, a first ever and a new low in the history of our democracy. The media are complicit in this coup, operating 24/7 as agents of the Deep State against the Trump movement. Another low in how our institutions function.

Healthcare continues to be a disaster that is only getting worse.

Tax reform will take forever, crowding out important priorities, and will only manage to cut taxes without cutting spending, making our debt situation worse. That may get compounded by a $1 trillion infrastructure program, which would be fine if it were actually paid for. The Democrats are the party of "spend with already collected taxes," while Republicans are about "spend with ever ballooning debt".

And we stand ready to get sucked into at least one and possibly more new pointless wars, on top of remaining in Afghanistan -- maybe North Korea, maybe somewhere else in the Middle East, maybe Venezuela, and possibly Russia itself. We will fail everywhere as usual since the first Korean War, the failure will cost trillions of dollars (without raising taxes = more debt that balloons from interest), and these failures will be the coup de grace to military morale.

Not to mention the continued demographic trends that threaten the stability and prosperity of America and the American people, as illegal immigrants remain here in the same numbers as under Obama (15-20 million), and as the same number of new immigrants are invited in per year.

Other than that, things are turning out wonderfully!

Now, Trump and his voters realized that we wouldn't Make America Great Again in the first six hours, days, weeks, or months -- but once it gets to six years, and the cheerleaders are still telling us to wait, well...

And it is not the fact that we haven't made total progress in such a brief time, it's that in most areas we haven't even been moving the ball down the field. It has either stayed still or has been moved back toward our own end zone. That makes it no longer a matter of "just give it more time" -- sure, a little more time in the current direction, and Trump will get removed or assassinated. We need to reverse these trends, not just let things go on for a longer time.

Measures of voter support do not count as accomplishments per se. Trump has more followers on social media, still draws large crowds, and would win re-election against Hillary or a generic Democrat -- so what? The election is over, it's time to apply his popular support to some area outside of the ballot box, to actually accomplish the agenda that he campaigned on, given that the Establishment will not help us out one bit and will eagerly sabotage that agenda.

So far, the bright spot that Trump has been trying to point to, in contrast to all that garbage, is the economy, and primarily the stock market. Nothing has changed from the campaign trail when he said it was just a big fat bubble, and now that the Democrats are out of the White House, the Fed can safely pop the bubble by raising interest rates and be able to pin the blame on a Republican president. Most of the rise has been driven by a handful of mega-companies, none of them components of the Trumpian goods-based economy -- over-valued tech like Facebook, Google, Apple, Amazon, etc.

Job creation is no better than under Obama, still way down per capita compared to even the Reagan years when we were already declining as a great economy. The jobs are part-time, low-paying, and in dead-end or bubble sectors like healthcare, education, and other service staples of the gig economy. We can't even joke about retail jobs anymore, since those are going to Amazon fulfillment centers -- just as low-paying as retail, but now in more dystopian workplaces.

So just like Trump said on the campaign trail, the unemployment numbers are phony -- some guy working 10 hours a week as a barista counts as employed, and if he quits that altogether and decides not to look for anything new, he's still employed!

Wage growth has been falling since Inauguration Day, continuing the stagnation of the past several years.

As all these aspects of income and wealth have declined, expenses have shot through the roof. Median home prices rose for yet another year, they are now up 50% compared to the low of 5 years ago, and key regions like Southern California are higher than before the housing bubble popped last time. And tuitions keep skyrocketing. With so little income growth, that means debt keeps rising -- or that people are going without the thing in the first place, like renting instead of owning a home.

And most of the goods and services that we buy are not getting better in quality. Especially the big-ticket expenses like housing, healthcare, and education.

In other words, our standard of living has continued the deterioration of the past 40 years, and the conditions are worse than they were before the last Great Recession.

If the economic news were truly so much better over the past six months, you personally and many people you know or even run into and chat up would have great news to share -- a new full-time job, higher wages or salary, in a non-bubble sector that won't get wiped out when the Fed raises interest rates or the government scales back your workplace's grant funding, not to mention cheaper housing, cheaper cars, cheaper food, cheaper everything, and less and less debt.

Although enthusiasm and hope were high at the outset, six months later reality is starting to set in. It's not that people think Trump himself failed, or hasn't tried. Most will blame the rigged system, the Swamp, and all the other forces that had been fucking this country over for decades, and will continue to even with an anti-Establishment guy in the White House.

They will conclude that it's going to take a major assault on those Establishment forces in order to reverse longstanding trends, not just a kind-hearted negotiator who wants to make deals and bring everybody together. They are going to want Trump to say, "Hey I tried with the nice guy routine, and now it's time to get tough and not take "no" for an answer".

In the meantime, that is the attitude that Trump himself and his supporters must take. There is little more than symbolic token victories to point to so far, other than refraining from getting involved in yet another disastrous globalist trade deal or climate deal. That is more of a halt than a reversal, and the re-negotiation of NAFTA so far is leaving manufacturing by the wayside, and focusing more on agriculture, finance, and the media.

The more we try to gloat about the stock market, as though ordinary Americans own any stock and as though it weren't a bubble, and the more we try to spin the jobs reports as anything other than a continuation of the trend from Carter through Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Bush Jr, and Obama -- the more out-of-touch we're going to sound to ordinary Americans, including Trump supporters.

The support of the masses is the sole, only, and exclusive leverage of the Trump movement, since it has no support but rather outright hostility in all elite institutions. So we must stay as in-touch with normal Americans as possible, or lose the only strength we have at the negotiating table against the elites.

If that means being brutally honest, so be it -- we can truthfully and easily tell people that the elites are still the problem since they're not honoring the election outcome, and continuing on with business as usual. Apart from being more honest and connecting better with the people's everyday lives, it will give them motivation to start mobilizing in one way or another against the elites. There is no other way to light a fire under the asses of our insulated and contemptuous elites.

The last thing we want to attempt is to tell the American people, or just Trump supporters, that everything is getting better, and to feel hopeful rather than worried about where things have been heading the first six months, and the next six months.

That will make them mistrust us, because they're not stupid and realize that the Establishment and its elites are a lot harder to force into serving the public than Trump made it seem during the campaign. And it will also keep them complacently or apathetically on the sidelines, leaving the movement and its President with nobody to have his back when and where it matters.

9 comments:

  1. AB.Prosper8/7/17, 3:34 PM

    The economy can't improve till wages go up. Heck half the S&P gains are in only 10 companies and of those only a couple actually produce goods . Its bunko all the way down

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-05-11/just-these-ten-companies-account-half-sps-2017-returns

    Unfortunately wages can't go up till there is a shortage of labor. Labor won't be short until trade is curtailed, immigration reversed , automation controlled via taxation and a large scale anti trust/anti large business ideology is in play . we may even have to push women out of the work force as well.

    Taxation, debt ,immigration , regulation, and wealth concentration are strangling the economy by killing non state consumption (the governments together are 40% of GDP)

    so even if he has the support of the Deep State instead of the resistance President Trump being a slightly populist Neo liberal instead of a Neo Conservative couldn't fix anything

    It amazes me that people think a billionaire casino magnate and shady developer with a bad reputation for chiseling (no idea if its deserved) could solve anything. Its not his job.

    What he might do is be able to reduce immigration a bit and give people a chance to arm up get equipped, get good, get hard which is all anyone should expect from him

    Odds are very good the USA going forward , probably by the 2030's will resemble either a typical Latin American oligarchy , split into several nations or collapse into a Rwanda x Bosnia

    Nobody can avoid that fate because no one wants too , incompatible peoples (races, creeds, religions) shouldn't share a polity and while they can be enervated enough to allow it to happen, such a nation is not going to be a high climber.

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  2. Trump has known the score and been proposing the right kind of solutions for decades, especially during his plan to run third-party in 2000:

    Single-payer healthcare

    Re-industrialize economy through tariffs

    Pause immigration, send out illegals

    One-time wealth tax on super-rich to pay off national debt

    Wariness of mergers & acquisitions mania, esp in media

    Stock markets being bubbles, don't inflate w/ low interest rates

    And so on.

    He's not a neolib or neocon, and his position has been inflexible for decades.

    You're imputing impure motives or lack of knowledge, when he's proven both good motives and good awareness. It's the omnipotence quality that keeps him from being the God-Emperor.

    We don't need to help him learn new facts or constrain his motives. We need to help him wield more power, by coercing the rest of the power structure into obeying his instructions as manifesting the will of the people. Or else it's off to the guillotines with our disobedient public servants.

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  3. AB.Prosper8/7/17, 4:51 PM

    I don't think we disagree per se more we are on different time frames .

    Single payer health care isn't a bad idea on its face but its not a solution to anything and its well beyond the US societies ability to do. In most respects diversity (religious, ethnic and cultural) means there is no us in the USA

    I favor the tariffs myself but automation will eat a lot of the jobs anyway. It doesn't matter how industrialized we are if people aren't need for the jobs.

    Immigration pause is again fine but illegals are only part of the problem, immigration on its face is the problem. We need to send a few million people back, especially anyone from a low trust culture

    The debt is well beyond that measure and having the USG force Zuckerberg or Gates or whoever to sell a bunch of stock to lower the deficit isn't going to work as the debt is far more than the 19 trillion commonly sited . Not opposed ,just think its a half measure in some ways when in reality we need to downscale to smaller businesses and have size and wealth limits

    The bottom two I do agree with though my trust for Trump is limited. His reputation as a sharper predates his Presidential run

    This doesn't mean there is anyone else I'd support over him, he is the best we've got right now and for a few years

    To paraphrase former Sec. Def Rumsfeld you fight the war with the army you've got, not necessarily the one you want

    As for power, we'll see. There is so much demoralization agit-prop out there, Trump could win every battle and the news would go all Baghdad Bob and claim otherwise.

    anyway, thanks for the reply and keep up the good work

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  4. When we plan out what comes after Trump, it's crucial to correctly identify what Trump's weaknesses were.

    Knowledge / awareness / omniscience -- as good as you can ask for.

    Motives / values / omnibenevolence -- as good as you can ask for.

    Power / authority / omnipotence -- nearly zero within DC, but having masses of supporters ready for collective action (like going to the polls, but maybe beyond that).

    After Trump, we need someone who is more of an insider, in the sense of a veteran of politics and who has a decent amount of political capital, so that they can actually get the Swamp to carry out the President's agenda, rather than face daily mutiny with no consequences.

    There are good guys within the Swamp, albeit damn few. Mike Flynn was one -- I'd bet the Trump supporters would be willing to give him a shot. He must have connections with the other good guys within the government and just outside the govt.

    And those good guys are all from the military / intel power groups, so he would be far better prepared to nip a coup in the bud. That is now a primary concern for our future populist-nationalist Presidents.

    Ideal plan: re-hire Flynn as National Security Adviser after firing McMaster, then during re-election switch out Pence for Flynn, he stays as VP during Trump's 2nd term, and runs on his own in '24. (Third consecutive term for a party must be the incumbent VP.)

    Or, somebody who Flynn would vouch for to take his place in that sequence.

    I'm halfway trusting Tom Cotton to play a more prominent role. Either as Flynn's VP, or even taking Flynn's place himself.

    He's at least making moves in the right direction on trade, industry, and immigration. And he's a late Gen X-er, so not totally committed to ruinous wars despite being a military guy.

    He's got Trump's two terms to prove he's not just a chameleon like the other Senators. We'll have to wait and see how he performs.

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  5. It stands to reason that those who benefited the least from the status quo/recent tradition will be the most rebellious. Likely we're talking about those born since the mid 1970's.

    Current events are proving that too many shitty and spoiled people were born in the 60's (not to mention earlier), such that the better ones can't emerge and gain more clout.

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  6. off topic: what do you make of Jordan Peterson?

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  7. Holding multiple jobs up to 20-year high:

    http://www.businessinsider.com/more-americans-working-more-than-one-job-to-make-ends-meet-2017-8

    The more the Trump movement tries to spin rather than level with the people, the more they risk alienating the white working class, esp. in key Rust Belt states.

    If the blue-collar Rust Belt-ers don't feel this so-called improvement in their own daily lives (personal, family, friends, neighbors, co-workers moving on to greener pastures), they will conclude that either the statistics are lying and Trump is just spinning them like Obama was, or that the numbers are real but are going to different groups of people -- immigrants, yuppies, etc., whose improving fortunes the white working class would not see in their own lives.

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  8. Cernovich is mentioning on twitter that the top choice to replace McMaster is fucking John Bolton. I really don't even know what to say to that. It's like that "instead of going to the box factory we'll be going to the box factory" joke from The Simpsons.

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  9. Same basic ideology and strategy as McMaster, but least Bolton would not be part of a boarding party from the Pentagon -- less of a coup threat. He doesn't have much political capital, compared to a General, so less able to twist Trump's arm or go over his head like McMaster does.

    We deserve somebody good, but if the Pentagon and Deep State have the leverage to make sure the guy sucks, at least let him be powerless too.

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