April 10, 2017

Trump wants rapprochement with Iran, distance from Gulf states

We're getting closer to involvement in an open armed conflict between the Iranian vs. Arabian sides in the struggle for regional dominance in the Middle East, with Syria and the Shia Crescent being on the Iranian side, and the jihadist-enabling monarchies on the other (led by Saudi Arabia).

If you belive in "trusting Trump," what are his views on this choice moving forward? For the past several decades, we have only sided with the Arabians and cut off relations with the Iranians.

It turns out that Trump believes in moving closer to Iran than we have been, and farther away from the Arabians than we have been.

Rewind to 2007, when Iranian President Ahmadinejad is visiting New York to give speeches at the UN and Columbia University. It's a rare appearance of an Iranian President in America.

As the Columbia president is giving the introduction to Ahmadinejad's speech, he turns to him and flatly accuses him, "You exhibit all the signs of a petty and cruel dictator."

At the time, Trump was interviewed by Wolf Blitzer, and the topic came up. Did we score any wins?

Well, I'll tell you this. I guess [Ahmadinejad] hates us pretty much already. When he leaves New York, he's going to dislike us even more. And in a way, that's too bad. But he certainly dislikes us. And from everything I see on television, between CNN and everything else, he's going to dislike us a hell of a lot more once he leaves.

So, he wasn't some supreme evil or #1 state sponsor of terrorism. He was some foreign leader who we should have made a better impression on and gotten something out of. It was a missed opportunity.

For even clearer statements, see this vintage Trump appearance on Fox & Friends from 2007:



President Bush was also at the UN at the time, but doesn't meet Ahmadinejad. Trump says that instead of blowing him off, Bush should be meeting, talking, and negotiating with the Iranian leader, especially now that he's on our turf (a rare opportunity for home field advantage).

A Fox host asks, "Do you think he's mentally stable?" Trump: "Who, the President?" lol. Trump calls the Persian "smart like a fox" who is probably playing other world leaders without them realizing it.

Trump reiterates that Iraq didn't knock down WTC -- that it was Saudi Arabia and other (Gulf) countries. Then he adds for emphasis that it wasn't Iran either on 9/11. He calls out Saudi Arabia again for probably harboring Bin Laden, when the retarded media is focusing on distraction countries.

At least as far back as a 1999 interview with Larry King, discussing his political views while considering a presidential campaign in 2000, Trump has made his displeasure known that "Saudi Arabia is ripping us off big-league".

Since the Iraq War, he has regularly made statements about how Iran's influence is growing in the region (and that was before Iran started taking over Iraq's oil, a common complaint of his now). As a savvy businessman, he knows that this means there's more and more reason to try to cut some kind of deal with them. Get a piece of the action, rather than get shut out. He probably has not just the oil in mind but the geopolitical strength that oil brings with it.

Here are all of Trump's tweets that mention Iran. Most are about the nuclear deal, and his criticism was always how bad our negotiators were at getting goodies for our side, not that it was immoral to make the deal, it would lead to nukes, etc. Unlike Lyin' Ted, Trump did not promise to "rip to shreds" the deal as President.

The other occasions are outrage when they antagonize us, but that burns out quickly.

And mentioning that Iran's power and influence continue to grow. He sounds upset not on an existential level, like the Antichrist is growing more powerful -- but because we have no relations with them, and they're holding more and more of the cards in the Middle East, especially regarding oil. He's pissed that we can't get in on that because we've so isolated ourselves from them, and on the few times when we do interact, we give them everything and get nothing in return.

He certainly has never mocked an Iranian politician like he did a major figure in the Saudi royal family:


Verdict: Trump favors rapprochement not only with Russia, but also their major ally in the Middle East, Iran (aside from defending their client, Assad, as the lesser evil). He has held this view for at least the past 10 years, and is making his calculations based on utilitarian concerns like rising vs. falling relative influence. If the Saudis are down and Iran is up, then we should re-allocate our relations away from the Arabians and toward the Iranians.

All the more reason given how we were stabbed in the back by the Gulf states on 9/11, and provide them with free defense without which they wouldn't exist. Iran does not parasitize us militarily or blow up our skyscrapers, so they would make better-faith partners.

If we the American citizens can drown out the drumbeat of war, we may actually get to see the President make good on his long-held goal for aligning ourselves away from the jihadist hotbed of Arabia and toward a worthy fuckin' adversary at the deal-making table. "The Persians -- they're great negotiators, folks."

Aside from that line, he does not idealize or romanticize Iran, but he's a realist -- and who is the alternative? The two big oil nations there are Iran and Saudi Arabia (Iraq is big, but becoming an extension of Iran). By now we see what we get from throwing in with the Saudis rather than the Iranians, a relationship that Putin has been benefiting from -- without having Iranians hijack planes and fly them into Moscow skyscrapers.

25 comments:

  1. If US wants more leverage in the Middle East, am a bit confused why they don't simply play the Sunni and Shia factions against each other. If the neocons got their way with Syria, might actually screw up the balance of power.

    It took an ascendant ISIS closing in on Baghdad for a desperate US to open a real dialogue with Iran...that should already have been going on.

    At this point we'll see what Trump's intentions are. Hoping he was making a back room deal to get in Gorsuch. A good sign would be if he starts appealing his travel bans as soon as he can.
    The celebration of the neocons, though, suggests there may be more going on...unless they're dumb enough to get that happy over one concession. Given their behavior during election season, certainly not impossible...or they are clever enough to understand their praise is damaging.

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  2. Problem is that was 10 years ago now Trump is 70 and surrounded by people who take the opposite view.

    Pompeo at CIA is buddies with Saudibarbaria and Mattis like the other Jewish neo-cons is clear that Iran is the enemy.

    Look the US and Americans had more similarities to Saddam's Iraq than Kuwait or Saudi.

    Don't look for a reasonable worldview - follow the money and Jewish ethnic interests.

    Where does Iran fit in that world view?

    Who do Israel and neo con Jews fear Iran or the Sunni Gulf states? - Iran!

    Who buys weapons from the US - $15+ billion during Obama years - Iran or Saudi? Saudi!

    Why does the US establishment hate Putin? Because Jews see him as a Czar who is bad for the Jews and supportive of Iran, Syria.

    Why does the US MIC need Russia as a villain? Because they justify US weapon sales to European countries and careers for people at NATO, state etc.

    The reasonable threats to US are Saudi, Turkey, Mexico.

    But none of those are a threat to the Jews or to US finance or the MIC.

    That's the calculation.

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  3. $15+ billion during Obama years

    I meant $150!!! + billion.

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  4. Ag, some links that may be helpful to readers about Russia and the Slavic peoples, particularly the Pan-Slavic movement. Since you note often the WWII similarities, I'll quickly note to readers that the role of this movement is much debated with regards to its contribution to WWI. Very interesting is Russia's dominance to the chagrin of western Slavic nations in the 20th century leading up to WWI.

    https://www.britannica.com/event/Pan-Slavism

    Notice focus is on eastern and southern, not western Catholic Slavic nations. Eastern Orthodox and Slavic biker tour to strengthen these bonds.
    http://www.balkaninsight.com/en/article/russia-s-night-wolves-head-to-the-balkans-for-slavic-tour-06-21-2016

    http://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2016/05/putin_and_the_night_wolves.html

    Do the Western nations, the ones like Ukraine, the Baltics, have anything to worry about like they currently do? And what of the nations in that bike tour? Time will tell.

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    1. Quick note to readers: this history will help inform why someone like John Schindler, Orthodox I think but more "West" is on edge. Sailer has written some on the Jews and their relationship and history with Russia, but hopefully this will provide a cursory, fuller picture.

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    2. One more thing that may or may not be significant but is different from 100 years ago: the Orthodox and Roman Catholic Churches are more unified than they've been in over 1000 years. The installation of the new Pope saw the Orthodox Patriarchs involved in the absolute most intimate and holy ceremonies. Praying together at St. Peter's tomb! Indeed, I had a friend begin attending one of the Eastern churches (she had some ancestry) and she can do this while still calling herself Catholic...

      Back to the Slavs... The last World Youth Day, a Roman Catholic festival, was held in Poland and guess who else also took part: clergy from the Orthodox churches. The youth come from all over the world, but the stamp of the place is also put on it... At one point, the proto-Slavic language was used during the Papal Mass.
      (This incorporation is not unique to the Eastern Orthodox, Lawrence Auster was able to convert to RC while remaining in English Rite Church under these new rules, but that's much tinier in scope than with the East.

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  5. "If US wants more leverage in the Middle East, am a bit confused why they don't simply play the Sunni and Shia factions against each other."

    Because we are no longer #1 with few powerful rivals. We could play the Iraqi and Iranian sides against each other during the 1980s because our society had not gone into a tailspin just yet, and the Soviet Union was imploding and could not take sides there.

    Also, Iran was just starting to toughen up after the Revolution in '79.

    By now, Iran is a strongly unified country with growing power and influence, and is backed by Russia which is also stronger and more unified over time.

    Meanwhile, our ability to impose our will in the Mid-East has been proven to not exist.

    Quite simply, we do not have a magic wand anymore.

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  6. "follow the money and Jewish ethnic interests."

    Those are superficial factors, not fundamental. The Israelis and Saudis lavishing our politicians with so much money is a formality -- we wanted to align ourselves together for geopolitical reasons, and them paying us follows from that.

    What if an Iranian lobby sprung up overnight and offered to pay a US Senator more than what the Saudis were paying him? Would that Senator turn 180 degrees and start shilling for Iran? No, because we are not aligned with them, and they would get crucified for trying to.

    They would be accused of being bought off by the Iranians. It would not matter if the accusers were getting big money from the Saudis -- that would not count as "being bought off," but being rewarded by loyal friends and allies.

    Israel's role is also secondary to the Saudi role. We've been in bed with the Saudis since the 1930s, and with Israel only since the '70s. Israel is used by the US solely as a source of firepower and muscle in the M.E. The Saudis have what we really want -- oil.

    During the Suez Crisis in 1956, the US actually sided with Egypt rather than the invaders from Israel, Britain, and France, who wanted control over the Suez and regime change against Nasser.

    Eisenhower threatened to ruin Britain's struggling postwar economy unless they GTFO, and they did.

    We strengthened Nasser against the Zionist expansionists, proving that the Jews and Israel have no inherent control over us.

    With all the anti-Zionist fervor in Saudi Arabia, you think a Zionist-controlled American government would at least sever relations with the Saudis, maybe even invade or bomb them to make them stop hating the Jews. Instead we don't care and turn a blind eye to it. They've got big oil.

    Our alliance with Israel is strictly utilitarian, and the day that the geopolitical calculation says we should align with Iran and Russia instead, buh-bye to the American-Israeli alliance... unless the Israelis wanted to change as well, and join their former nemesis of Iran.

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  7. First Bill Kristol pushes for regime change in Iran, in addition to Syria. Now we have the son of the deposed Shah, living in exile, saying we should have regime change in Iran -- how it used to be back in the '60s and '70s, man:

    https://www.yahoo.com/news/irans-long-exiled-prince-wants-145535555.html

    You always see people pointing to Iranian life under the Shah as this free-love paradise with Persian cuties mincing around in miniskirts and letting their big hair flow freely. (Ditto pictures of Afghanistan pre-Taliban.)

    Of course, that was a fluke -- it's not like Iran was Western or free-loving during the Jazz Age, or any time before that. The Shah's rule was a brief cosplaying episode for Iranians to pretend they were swingin' mod Westerners, rather than conservative Middle Easterners.

    Reminder that there is no such thing as a "limited" action in the Middle East, given how many sides are intensely involved and eager to ramp things up against their enemies if they smell the opportunity opening up, however "limited" it seems at first.

    Give it a week, and Bill Kristol will be saying, "Regime change in Syria and Iran is nice, but what we really need is regime change in Russia."

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  8. Iran is a natural ally of the West; their many wars against the Ottoman empire helped save Europe.

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  9. Well, it's important to remember that Iran obviously contributed forged intelligence to trick gullible Americans into invading Iraq. Something I suspect Trump is aware of. Just like he (by his own words) is aware of the enormous Iranian presence in Iraq and Syria. Iran are not our friends by any means. I'm pretty tired of alt-right types and libertarians trying to white knight for the Iranians just because the Israelis hate them.

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  10. Iran is a natural ally of the West; their many wars against the Ottoman empire helped save Europe.

    No they aren't.

    1. Iran is perceived as an existential threat to Israel

    2 Iran is perceived as a threat to oil rich, weapons purchasing Arab states.

    3 Turkey is in NATO and NATO is not going away no matter that Trump has rightly called it obsolete.

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  11. Give it a week, and Bill Kristol will be saying, "Regime change in Syria and Iran is nice, but what we really need is regime change in Russia."

    Which gets back to what I wrote above:

    "Don't look for a reasonable worldview - follow the money and Jewish ethnic interests.

    Where does Iran fit in that world view?

    Who do Israel and neo con Jews fear Iran or the Sunni Gulf states? - Iran!

    Why does the US establishment hate Putin? Because Jews see him as a Czar who is bad for the Jews and supportive of Iran, Syria."

    Highly ethnocentric Jewish neocons like Bill Kristol are not going away and their agenda remains the same.

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  12. Kuwait or Assad?

    Saudi or Assad?

    Saudi Arabia or Assad?

    Who buys billions in weapons from the US - Saudi, Kuwait or Syria, Iran?

    Who is perceived as a threat to the Jews of Israel - Saudi, Kuwait, Iran or Assad?

    Three fundamental factors determine US policy towards the Middle East -

    1 Jewish ethnic concerns (along with White evangelical "cucks" to the Jews) and the state of Israel.

    2 US MIC sales to regional governments.

    3 Careers of ambitious people in US gov, mil, NATO, etc

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  13. I'm not blaming Bill Kristol because he and his Jewish ethnocentrism are non-factors -- otherwise they would have sunken Trump during the primaries or the general election.

    I'm using him as a window into the neocon plan, and obviously most of them in the Deep State and military are not Jews (McMaster, Mattis, etc.).

    Jews are welcome for now among the Establishment because Israel is useful muscle in the M.E., alongside our Saudi allies.

    If Israel becomes un-useful, Zionist views will have zero impact on US foreign policy.

    We use the Zionists, they do not use us.

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  14. anon is missing something.. russia and israel are actually allies. which makes sense given the amount of former soviet citizens living in israel. american jews, even zionist ones, shouldn't be 100% conflated with israeli jews in their attitudes.

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  15. "Iran are not our friends by any means."

    Relatively speaking, they are -- our main ally in the region, Saudi Arabia, blew up the World Trade Center and flew another plane into the Pentagon. Their "Sunni moderate" ally, Pakistan, harbored Bin Laden afterwards for years.

    They are the ones who fund and spread the radical Salafi mosques that create the ideological breeding ground for ISIS and other jihadist groups. They also fund and supply these jihadist groups.

    That's the threat of terrorism that Americans face -- from jihadists.

    Iran has never attacked us, let alone like 9/11, does not harbor major criminals who attacked us like Bin Laden, and does not spread radical mosques and fund and supply them.

    They support groups like Hezbollah whose goals are to drive invading armies out of their homelands, e.g. driving Israel out of southern Lebanon, and maybe soon from the Golan Heights.

    Hezbollah does not roam around the Mid-East killing any Muslims who do not come from the same sect as they do, does not blow up shrines and buildings belonging to other Muslim sects, does not convert other Muslims at the barrel of a gun, and certainly does not do any of this stuff in America or the West in general.

    Iran wants regional dominance, not violent global chaos like the Arabian jihadists do.

    That's just on the matter of violence, terrorism, and war. They also have just as much to offer us economically -- oil -- as the Arabians do. Iran + Iraq produce about as much oil as Saudis do. But one of those partners merely dislikes us, while the other expresses their hatred of us by hijacking our planes and flying them into our buildings.

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  16. I see very few people on the paleo / alt Right idealizing Iran.

    It's just, "Why can't we choose political partners who do not constantly stab us in the back, freeload off of our military, and then make us pay rent for our bases on their land?"

    The only thing we romanticize about Iran are the babes -- and that's not a figment of our imagination.

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  17. For now it's counter-productive to focus on the bad role that Israel plays in the region. Not because it's false, but it's one of the most difficult things to redpill Americans about, especially Republicans / Trump voters, and especially if they're over 40.

    However, driving a wedge between us and the Saudis will be much easier because of 9/11 etc. No Christians LARP-ing as Muslims.

    Once we break free of that alliance, a more neutral relation with Israel follows automatically.

    If Israel retaliates, it will remove the mask and show normal Americans that they don't have some kind of loving fondness for us. Then normies will have little problem letting the Zionists fend for themselves.

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  18. However, driving a wedge between us and the Saudis will be much easier because of 9/11 etc. No Christians LARP-ing as Muslims.

    And then who takes up the slack and buys the $150+ billion in weapons sales that Saudi made in the Obama years?

    Post 911 now CIA director Mike Pompeo gave Saudi an award for anti terror policies!

    Once we break free of that alliance, a more neutral relation with Israel follows automatically.

    Nothing neutral about Jewish power or White evangelical "cuckish" behavior toward it.

    Iran wants regional dominance, not violent global chaos like the Arabian jihadists do.

    That's just on the matter of violence, terrorism, and war. They also have just as much to offer us economically -- oil -- as the Arabians do. Iran + Iraq produce about as much oil as Saudis do. But one of those partners merely dislikes us, while the other expresses their hatred of us by hijacking our planes and flying them into our buildings.


    Which one do the Jewish neocons and Israel fear?

    Which one buys billions of weapons from the US?

    I'm using him as a window into the neocon plan, and obviously most of them in the Deep State and military are not Jews (McMaster, Mattis, etc.).

    Mattis was Kristol's pick as a Republican candidate to beat Trump!

    Of course most are not Jewish. The issue is the agenda not which particular meathead carries it out.

    McCain, Graham, Bolton are not Jewish but they are world class "cucks" to the Jews.

    Hell, McCain actually considered orthodox Jewish Democrat Joe Lieberman as a VP candidate.

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  19. "And then who takes up the slack and buys the $150+ billion in weapons sales that Saudi made in the Obama years?"

    If anyone, Iran or Syria. Distancing ourselves from the Saudis means more toward Syria and Iran. Or Trump will tell the MIC to "expect major budget cuts" as with every other department.

    Zionists have no leverage over people with actual power. Bill Kristol is no king-maker -- see the GOP primaries and general, when he recruited McCuckin and still lost Utah big-league.

    Lyin' Ted tried to mobilize the Judeo-LARP-ers among the grassroots voters, and he too failed to stump the Trump.

    It's only now that Trump faces the military wing of Deep State that he's having trouble -- they are the ones who matter, not Zionists or evangelicucks. The instant Israel stopped being useful to their plans for world domination, buh-bye muh special relationship.

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  20. Trump 2020: "Now folks, I don't know Rouhani, but if we got along with Iran, for example against jihadi terrorism, that would be a good thing, not a bad thing."

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  21. "By now, Iran is a strongly unified country with growing power and influence, and is backed by Russia which is also stronger and more unified over time."

    Why shouldn't the Sunni powers be more than a match for Iran if there's no proxy wars to distract them? Both Saudis and Turks have larger economies than Iran adjusted for PPP as well as access to lots of high-tech US weaponry. Adding in Israel(which for now seems to behave as a Sunni power) is just overkill. I almost think backing a Kurdish/Shia alliance would make more sense.

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  22. Saudis, Turks, and Jews could counter Iran alone, but not Iran plus Russia.

    My point is the trends, where things are heading. Iran's value has been going up, especially now that they are re-establishing their influence over Eastern Mesopotamia (historically common), giving access to Iraqi oil.

    Israel gets softer and softer, Jordan has been bought off for so long, Turkey just saw a coup attempt, and the Saudi elite is so numerous that in-fighting is bound to tear them apart as oil wealth plateaus.

    But when you put Russia on Iran's side, with some help of uncertain type from China, it's an even match or more.

    The wild card now is Egypt. Historically they align with the southern crescent of Sunnis and Israel. But al-Sisi was emphatic on *no* regime change for Assad, whereas Turkey, Saudi, and Jordan were vocally *for* regime change. I think Abdullah of Jordan was the first, in 2011.

    Since that's the major conflict right now, Egypt has at least tenuously put itself on the Iranian rather than the Arabian side.

    Egypt does benefit from massive bribes from Uncle Sam, just like Jordan and Israel, but it's been the center of empires going back thousands of years, so they'd be no slouch even without American aid.

    The US just humiliated al-Sisi by having him over to meet Trump, when the official line was still "no regime change," and then turning around and pushing for regime change and airstrikes against Assad a few days later when Abdullah visits, contrary to Egypt's wishes (strong condemnation from Egyptian parliament).

    So I wouldn't be surprised if Egypt either declines getting involved on either side, or throws in with Syria and Russia (and therefore, Iran). That would be a big loss to the Arabian side.

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  23. Russia or China will only feel more pressure to give proxy support to the Shi'ite alliance if the balance of power shifts decisively toward the Sunni alliance.

    Historically, Russia and Persia were enemies and if certain pressures were removed, should be possible to weaken the modern Russo-Iranian relationship. Axis of Evil American foreign policy creates self-fulfilling prophecies.

    Anatolian, Egyptian, and Persian powers have fought for thousands of years over the ground in between them. The actual Arabians have only been big players intermittently.
    I would expect to see the historical balance of power re-emerge between these 3 centers where if one gets too powerful, the other 2 will knock them down a peg.

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