March 8, 2016

Primary open thread, March 8

Since the comments to the last post are becoming an open thread, let's move it here.

My main interest tonight is how the Mormons are going to vote. Southeastern Idaho is part of the Mormon Corridor, and at least from what I've heard, they're more hardcore into their religion than in the homeland of Utah. There are Mormon pockets in Nevada, including Elko County in the northeastern part of the state bordering Idaho, which went for Cruz. He's the apocalyptic religious candidate, so he ought to be right up their alley.

The Mountain states in general will be Cruz-friendly since they're rife with prepper types. Secular rather than religious apocalypse, but still. His Big Data metrics will let him know when to talk about the IRS and the Federal Reserve, and when to talk about God.

46 comments:

  1. Kasich is predicted to win Ohio. Ohio is a very important winner-take-all state that'll be decisive in deciding whether Trump can take the nomination soon (the other important state is Florida). Since you've lived in Ohio, could you offer your insight into whether you think Trump or Kasich will win.

    Kasich has home field advantage, but Trump seems to be energizing blue collar whites to an impressive extent. The polls show a very close race. I'd like to know your thoughts.

    Also, here's an interesting recent press release from Trump's site in which he calls for limiting legal immigration.

    https://www.donaldjtrump.com/press-releases/donald-j.-trump-statement-on-immigration

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  2. Random Dude on the Internet3/8/16, 5:07 AM

    Trump will win Michigan and Mississippi: Michigan by a wide margin, Mississippi unfortunately by the margins we saw in Kentucky and Louisiana. The anti-Trump vote seems to be coalescing around Cruz so unless the state is totally unfriendly to Cruz (like Michigan), Trump will likely win by single digit percentages, not the double digit Nevada style blowouts.

    Cruz will win Idaho. I think that is a given.

    Hawaii is interesting. Trump has a hotel out there so he has name recognition there. I've seen absolutely no polling from there so I have no idea which way it will go. Probably not Cruz or Kasich, maybe Trump or Rubio.

    Kasich has talked about spending a lot of time out in Michigan and if Trump carries away Michigan, hopefully Trump can take Ohio as well. Trump is up by 3-5 points in recent polls. Trump has been spending a lot of time shutting down Rubio, which seems to be working (he is doing terribly everywhere, Puerto Rico aside) but he needs to start slapping down Cruz and Kasich: just keep them back far enough to win big March 15.

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  3. You can run through simulations for the rest of the primaries here and see if the outcome is nominee or brokered convention.

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/writeup/the_gop_race_for_delegates_an_interactive_tool.html

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  4. That simulator is great. Its really easy to see that Trump is the only one with a path to a nomination without a brokered convention.

    Cruz's best case scenario: Rubio and Kasich get out after losing their states March 15, he takes Trump one-on-one and somehow wins most the states. He still can't get the delegates because even if you are extremely generous, he's not winning NY, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, West Virginia. Give him the entire West, and he still gets a brokered convention.

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  5. Lazze Faire3/8/16, 9:30 AM

    Apparently there are at least 60 million (third world) immigrants, legal and non legal.

    I'm seriously trying to fight the Millennial pacific northwester in me, but it really does feel like the noose is tightening around our necks.

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  6. AgentOrange3/8/16, 12:29 PM

    Is anyone using PredictIt? I think the Trump shares for the Ohio primary are vastly undervalued. Looking to make some money off it.

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  7. http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/poll-romney-helps-more-than-hurts-trump-with-republicans/ar-AAgx5z4?li=BBnb7Kz&OCID=DELLDHP

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  8. Welp, Paul Ryan got ignored, then Romney's attack backfired, where else do we go from here? I know -- Dubya! Oh wait, he already tried and got ignored, too, then got his entire legacy and clan disgraced by the frontrunner.

    Let's dig up Ronnie Reagan's corpse and wag its finger at the voters! Is it too soon to do that after Nancy's death? Whatever, we need to escalate FAST.

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  9. AgentOrange3/8/16, 1:16 PM

    I'm sure you've all seen it, but John Oliver spent an entire 22 minutes on his program ridiculing Trump. Besides being a hack, Oliver is blatantly inconsistent and generally not very funny. Trump is kind of low hanging fruit in terms of comedy. I think he stole half his jokes from the Rubio campaign. Point is, it reeks of a desperation to discredit Trump in a way that I don't think anyone has ever displayed so transparently towards any candidate. The fear is real.

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  10. I can't add much about Ohio to what you can see from polls and local reporting.

    I was hoping the poll showing Trump ahead of Kasich by only single digits was a fluke, but another one just came out showing the same thing.

    There was a report at Vindy.com about how large numbers of Dems in Youngstown are switching to Republican to vote for Trump. It's blue-collar industrial, hollowed out and very rough, mobbed up, and one of the few places in northern Appalachia where whites are a minority (about 45%, with equal numbers of blacks, plus assorted others).

    My blue-collar Vietnam vet uncle who lives in the Appalachian part of Ohio near Wheeling WV has been enthusiastic about Trump ever since I brought it up last summer. Just saw him a week ago, and he's still fired up -- said he hasn't felt this good about voting since Reagan in 1980.

    So like Kentucky, I'm sure the Appalachian part of Ohio will go overwhelmingly for Trump.

    Trouble is, not many people live there anymore. A lot moved down into central Ohio, around Columbus, or maybe Akron / Cleveland. You're going to find more upwardly mobile striver types, and they could be going for Kasich if upbeat or Cruz if depressive.

    Similar to the Kentucky pattern where the cities, suburbs, and exurbs around Louisville went for Cruz. I'm sure a lot of those people have grandparents in eastern Appalachian Kentucky, but have moved on.

    Cincinnati will probably look like western Kentucky, with decent Cruz or Kasich support. Likewise for nearby Dayton.

    The wild card will be Cleveland, a ground zero for the Rust Belt decay, along with Toledo also in the north. Their metro area is about even with Columbus, where Kasich will have an advantage. Cleveland is more Rust Belt-y and has more of a ghetto problem. That could work to Trump's advantage.

    A lot of the small-town and rural areas went for Santorum in '12, but I'm guessing that was more due to the populist economic streak and not so much the evangelical streak (Huckabee did nothing in Ohio in '08).

    Even if Kasich squeezes past, it wouldn't be that great of an upset -- he's a popular governor with home field advantage, hasn't attacked Trump nor been attacked by him, and there isn't anyone else to vote for if you don't like Trump -- Rubio is done, and nice guy Carson is out.

    After we see the results from Michigan, my best guess would be a blend of the Michigan and Kentucky results. Kentucky didn't technically have a local running in the race anymore, but Establishment leader Mitch McConnell and junior Senator Rand Paul were working as hard as they could to stump Trump, by hook or by crook, and he still eked out a victory.

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  11. The Kasich ad I saw yesterday is 100% about job creation, images of manufacturing plants, and voiced over by a gravely blue-collar type.

    Trump must unload on Kasich's record for supporting NAFTA, how many jobs were sucked out of Ohio as a result, how Kasich et al support TPP, AKA NAFTA for Asia, and how Kasich isn't going to slam heavy tariffs to keep manufacturing jobs here in America.

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  12. What do you think of the possibility of a deal between Cruz and Rubio?

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  13. With extensive time in Toledo and Cleveland spent, my view of Cleveland is that it has gentrified enough into a wannabe Chicago to not really have its Republicans break Trump, so advantage Kashich there. Cleveland Clinic gets enough high profile cases to have enough make work jobs to go around. Lebron James surprisingly keep people calm enough too. Just look at Browns fans, good God, they will put up with A LOT. Case Western (a wannabe "elite" uni) and the host of crappy schools (Kent State, Cleveland State, University of Akron) add in another shit ton of meaningless make-work of those Suburban Republicans who adore Kasich.
    Toledo on the other hand, the city has really been gutted by the auto failures and the zero shits people give about glass. Trump has much more fertile ground there. Few young strivers, looks like an extended strip mall. Definitely advantage Trump.

    In fact, Ohio is just a state of wannabe regions: Cleveland = wannabe Chicago, Columbus = wannabe Austin, Toledo = wannabe Detroit, Cincinnati = wannabe Charlotte
    I would be curious about how those areas break in primaries.

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  14. Those belittling Trump's recent performance and hyperventilating about killing his momentum need a reality check. Trump is facing in all-out assault the likes of which we've never seen. Period. In fact, this saturation push back would not have been possible in the pre-smart phone and pre-social media era.

    It's a testament to Trump limiting his excesses to vanity and supermodels that the octopus can't find virtually anything to smear him with. He hung out with the Clintons? What elite hasn't? And it's not like the other candidates are ascetics who've avoided any links to dubious figures. I read that Cruz has hung around with the homo who runs Paypal. And accepted help/donations from that guy. He's all for strong values unless there's money to be had.

    I believe that a fair number of elites aren't quite comfortable with destroying Trump. After all, they're accustomed to dealing with all types as a means to getting their way and they know they're probably going to have to deal with Trump as President. The elites are nervous about getting on Trump's bad side right off the bat. He's clearly developed a vendetta against Cruz for his chicanery. And I think they're disappointed and reluctant partly because they can't find a sure-fire scandal to sink him. They ad hominem attack him and question his conservative traits, but his biggest supporters are too alienated from mainstream "conservative" thought to give a damn about ideological purity. The whole purity junk is a diseased sign of how over the last 20-30 years, posturing has replaced actually doing anything useful.

    If Trump can rack of some big wins over the next couple weeks, we might get some pragmatism from the elites. Also, they take pride in being able to crack the toughest nuts. Maybe they're arrogant enough to think that they can persuade Trump to soften up after he's elected.

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  15. Random Dude on the Internet3/8/16, 4:34 PM

    Trump has never had more than a 5 point advantage over Kasich in any of the polls in Ohio. Kasich was handily winning all of the polls until Trump surged in the late summer. Kasich has never won a single poll since that surge though.

    I think Trump's Michigan performance will be a nice weather vane for Ohio. If Trump wins Michigan with the margins we're seeing in the polls, he should be able to do well in Ohio. If someone (like Kasich) ends up getting uncomfortably close (the margins that Trump won in Kentucky and Louisiana), I'd be a lot more concerned.

    Trump's victories seem to be very momentum based: when he does well, he does better and better (February was a good month for him so he kept racking up the wins that he carried to Super Tuesday). If momentum gets sapped for any reason, it seems like he automatically loses 10 percent. I think there is still a group of fence sitters out there about Trump: they want to support him but they're ready to bail at the first roadblock. This is how he likely got second place in Iowa, in my experience.

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  16. With Kasich posing a greater threat, let's hope Trump turns up the heat on Kasich. If Kasich does well tonight, they've got no choice.

    Put the onus on Kasich to prove that as a rust belt veteran politician he has actually done something to help the lunch pail set. Older voters (and in non-Obama elections voters are typically quite old) certainly remember with bitterness what stuff like NAFTA did to them. Might as well make career pols like Kasich answer for it.

    I wish we had direct line to Trump. We'd tell him to run ads about this and we'd advise him to corner Kasich about this in a debate. How could he explain himself? "It seemed like a good idea at the time". "All of these wonderful experts and colleagues of mine believed it was the key to a modern economy". "It was beneficial to many great people and companies".

    There's no excuse for voting for NAFTA. Trump's got to make that clear and get the word out.

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  17. If every state was an open primary.....This thing would be over by now. Cruz definitely has the apocalyptarian market cornered, and he's also got a lot of the goody two shoes pious folk on his side in at least some areas. He's basically tied with Kasich in Michigan. Someone on Isteve pointed out that Cruz dominated a sector of western Michigan known for being very Dutch, well-mannered, and prosperous.

    Still, Trump bested Cruz among Evangies in Mississippi. The slip in Kentucky can probably be put down to Kentucky being a caucus. Louisiana is far enough west that Cruz did pretty well there. And both LA and KY happened right after a dumb debate. Maybe the debate's effects have subsided.

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  18. Trumps winning the non-Mormon parts of Idaho but losing badly in the Mormon parts. Compare this map with the election results

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  19. Trump looks to win Hawaii wow! My opinion: If Trump wins 0-1 states March 15th then they'll find a way to stop him from nomination. If he wins 2 then it's bad for him, less than 60% chance he wins nomination. If he wins 3 he probably wins nomination but still open. If he wins 4-5 it's pretty much over.

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  20. "Someone on Isteve pointed out that Cruz dominated a sector of western Michigan known for being very Dutch, well-mannered, and prosperous."

    That's what the polling was showing (posted on that). The major city there, Grand Rapids, has an insane Hispanic population for being in Michigan -- 16%, compared to around 5% in other major cities.

    Western Michigan is like a pocket of the Plains states like Iowa. Sanctimonious cucks who welcome in three times as many Hispanic immigrants as other cities in the state -- not because they value diversity, but because they want cheap foreign labor.

    That's one reason why business is doing better in Grand Rapids -- they feel less guilty about importing cheap Mexican labor. Lots of cheap kitchen remodels, too, you can bet. Why hire Americans when they're predestined to Hell anyway?

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  21. Elvis was a cuck -- the Tupelo area went Cruz, and so did the suburbs of Memphis in NW Mississippi.

    "I can't stand that rock 'n' roll bullcrap, but did you know that Elvis was also a great gospel singer? It's the only music of his that I listen to."

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  22. Southeastern Idaho (more strongly Mormon than Salt Lake City), as I predicted, was a blowout against Trump -- many counties had him in 3rd, down 30 points from Cruz.

    Cult followers just can't resist the spell of a snake oil salesman.

    Expect Utah to be Trump's worst state.

    And it has nothing to do with Mormon Mitt going on the attack -- they'd be spellbound by the Cruz cult no matter what.

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  23. Hawaii loves Trump -- just like Nevada.

    It must be due to the extreme Religious Right not playing well along the Pacific Coast, which extends into Nevada, including the place where everyone lives, Las Vegas. (Two counties further inland, went Cruz, but they're part of the Mormon Corridor.)

    And now that Rubio's donezo, and Kasich was a non-starter out West, that only leaves Trump.

    "At least he's not one of those fanatic wacko Republicans, right?"

    Also a decent military / veteran population in Hawaii, among Republican voters anyway.

    This looks great for Trump smashing open the big fat pinata that is California (winner-take-all), if it drags on into June.

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  24. And to pre-empt JV, I've discussed how California is the most rooted state out West, back when I first looked into how rooted people were in the various states.

    Major power centers have high barriers to entry, so they have fewer transplants. New York City may have a good share of transplants, but a lot more come from the tri-state area. Contrast with Denver -- nobody in Denver is from Denver.

    California also had the closest thing to a productive economy out west. And it's in a much steeper state of decline compared to 30 years ago, compared to upstart cities in the Mountain states or the Pacific NW. So "Make America Great Again" will resonate more with the ex-surfer dudes (or maybe lapsed surfer dudes), than with the ski-slope strivers in the Mountain states.

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  25. The results tonight make it much more possible Trump sweeps on the 15th (except Northern Marianas I guess, but maybe even that.) I'd say 40% chance of winning them all compared to a 20% shot before tonight.

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  26. And I say it, and I really mean it -- "To the victor go the spoils." So you know what that means, folks? No, more, Idaho, potatoes -- do we agree? From now on, we eat only Pennsylvania potatoes, which are much more flavorful, in all fairness. Nothing goes better with Trump steaks, that I can tell you.

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  27. Looking ahead to next Tuesday, Trump is in a strong position to win 2 big winner-take-all states and possibly also notch a win and the lion's share of delegates in NC. He could also overperform, but this is the most likely scenario given what we know.

    Looking ahead to the general, the Republican primaries have turned out about half again as many voters as the Dems (around 12-13 million or so compared to about 8.2), with Trump earning almost as many raw votes as Hillary despite splitting the stage with an army of cucks for the majority of the race. You have to like his chances given those numbers - even better if enough elites get to the "acceptance" stage quickly.

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  28. "Make America great again".

    "Build stuff here again."

    "I've built stuff because I know how to deal with people"

    Whose said that?

    What should Ted Cruz's slogan be?

    "Make America greater for shallow and cynical get-rich-quick schemers and traitors".

    "Destroy traditional American culture to validate the paranoia and selfishness of zealots"

    "Say no to camaraderie, say yes to clammy individualism".

    The media won't stop with the shameless savaging of Trump voters and what they supposedly want, yet no one dares admit that Cruz's primary base is paranoid, fatalistic, and credulous.

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  29. The Memphis, Nashville, and Birmingham suburbs and exurbs have lots of parvenu, wannabe Southern aristocrats who are uncomfortable with Trump's "redneck" support, so he'll be somewhat weaker in those areas.

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  30. "California also had the closest thing to a productive economy out west. And it's in a much steeper state of decline compared to 30 years ago..."

    CA economic growth has outpaced the national rate for the past 5 years, and is predicted to continue doing so through 2020. We've been in the top 10 states since 2012. Not sure where you're getting your numbers from. But I think you're right, the Republicans here will vote Trump.

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  31. Meaning, making stuff -- not agriculture, resource extraction (Gold Rush), retail, finance, real estate transactions, etc.

    It's either the most ancient economy -- agriculture -- or the most postmodern virtual pseudo-economy where value is shuffled around by middlemen in a great big shell game.

    What does median income look like for Californians? Pathetic, and declining. The gains keep going to the top, not the middle or bottom. All of that "wealth" is virtual crap from Silicon Valley, slave-farmed agriculture, San Francisco banking, and real estate speculation.

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  32. Replacement of Mesoamerican labor with automation in Cali ag sector should be feasible soon, whether there's the will to carry that through is doubtful.

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  33. "Meaning, making stuff -- not agriculture, resource extraction (Gold Rush), retail, finance, real estate transactions, etc."

    Those are all legitimate industries, particularly the first one, where CA provides a substantial percentage of food for the country. CA was never that big of a manufacturing state. Is manufacturing the only legitimate industry worthy of counting towards a state's growth? I don't think so. Different regions have different things to offer. A diverse economy is a strong economy.

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  34. Manufacturing includes all manner of diverse things -- it's the making of goods, in general. Not just industrial stuff like tools, cars, electronics, machines, equipment, etc. -- although that's a big part of it.

    It's also clothing, shoes, luggage, furniture, housewares... literally everything around you in the physical world that was made from raw materials into a finished good.

    Agriculture is necessary, of course, but if that's all we have, we're a backwards country, not even part of the industrial revolution. Adding on finance, real estate, retail, marketing, PR, law, and other bullshit doesn't change that fact -- those things have been around forever too.

    And we can't build an entire economy on the virtual pseudo-value of the Silicon Valley giants today (Google, Facebook, etc.). They used to make real things there -- Apple computers used to be made in California, not just assembled there or merely "designed" there. Their other products too: I just checked my old Apple Extended Keyboard II, and on the back it says "Made in U.S.A" with a 1990 copyright. That's how recent some of these changes have been.

    An economy is not "diverse" just because it has a mix of ancient food production and hyper-futuristic internet shell games. It must also make goods, not just provide services.

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  35. Another way of looking at the Trump coalition http://www.unz.com/isteve/is-trump-the-new-hitler/#comment-1350476

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  36. "They used to make real things there..."

    We still do. California has the most manufacturing jobs of a state by a long shot: http://www.industryweek.com/top-ten-states#slide-9-field_images-158451

    California's manufacturing employment as a share of total employment of 8.3% is right around the national average. Its 17th congressional district, which includes Cupertino and San Jose, is 4th in the nation of congressional districts ranked by manufacturing’s share of total district employment: http://www.epi.org/publication/the-manufacturing-footprint-and-the-importance-of-u-s-manufacturing-jobs/

    Not too bad.

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  37. California has the most of any sheer number of things because of its size. Not per capita, which as you point out is at the national average -- better than Kansas, but that's not saying much.

    They don't make anything in Cupertino anymore. If you look on an Apple label, it says "designed in" America, and "assembled in" America -- but actually making the parts and pieces themselves, that's all China (FoxConn). They hide it by having the label read "other parts labeled thereon" or something like that -- meaning if you disassemble the computer, the motherboard will say Made in China, the power source will say Made in China, etc., but on the outer label, it doesn't say so.

    Just assembling pieces together in America isn't good enough, if all the stuff you're piecing together was Chinese-made crap. Garbage in, garbage out.

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  38. "Another way of looking at the Trump coalition"

    The Great Lakes and Northeast is not "traditional Democrats" -- they were Republican from the beginnings of the Party up through Bush Sr. There were many times when the Plains / Mountain states went Democrat during the Progressive and New Deal eras.

    http://www.270towin.com/historical-presidential-elections/

    Just another clueless commenter at iSteve...

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  39. Another media BS narrative that needs to be corrected -- "Although Trump does well with early deciders, the late deciders 'break for' Rubio or Kasich."

    Translation: if you're too wimpy to be voting for Trump, you're definitely going to vote for one of the inoffensive, Establishment-approved candidates. But also being clueless about which candidate stands for which policy, you'll defer making a decision until the last day and flip a coin among the safe conformist candidates.

    Whereas if you're voting Trump, you've heard his message long ago and don't need to debate it any longer. He's one of a kind in the field.

    The talking heads keep trying to spin this as though the propaganda assault has an effect -- those who recently made up their mind don't like Trump, so whatever propaganda there was in the week leading up to the vote, must have had an effect. Post hoc ergo propter hoc. Morons.

    There's been an unrelenting propaganda assault since last June, and yet his numbers have only gone steadily upward, and hardened his supporters rather than turned them off.

    The propaganda has little or no effect -- or a positive effect, as the poll about Romney's attack showed -- but, not surprisingly, the propaganda peddlers keep pushing this narrative. Good thing the viewers are savvy enough to see past it.

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  40. "They don't make anything in Cupertino anymore."

    Hey, I'm just going by the numbers, and the numbers say that the 17th congressional district, which includes Cupertino, is the 4th highest district in the nation ranked by manufacturing’s share of total district employment. Apple may not make much there anymore, but lots of other companies do, and not just in the tech industry. California's focus has never been manufacturing, and yet the numbers ain't bad in most metrics, and damn good in a few. So your characterization of California as "not making anything" is incorrect. Your characterization of California in general is a little off-base, if you ask this California native.

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  41. Dearborn, Michigan went for Sanders and Trump by decent margins -- just like I suspected in the post about Catholics and Muslims going for Trump.

    The media is wringing its hands about the heavily "Arab American" city voting for a Jew and a man who wants to temporarily halt Muslim immigration. They're conflating "Arab" with "Muslim," but lots of those people came here 100 years ago and are Levantine Christians -- if anything, they might not mind keeping the Muslim Arabs at bay, lest another Lebanese Civil War break out.

    Aside from Nassim Taleb, Judge Jeanine Pirro (nee Ferris) from Fox News is Lebanese Catholic and a staunch Trump supporter. She's also from the tiny part of New York state that lies in Appalachia (Elmira), which only adds to her populist streak.

    The media cannot understand how people from the civilized part of the Arabic-speaking world would want to keep away the more barbaric and nomadic folks who threaten the livelihood of the townspeople back home.

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  42. The post 1970 striving and stratification has really taken it's toll. The majority of talking heads have had little to no contact with or interest in more ordinary folk in years. And X-ers and Millennials, if they aren't particularly interested in having a broad grasp of history, can't remember a time where the sun belt wasn't hip. Or a time when people had a sense of community.

    The most insightful way to understand the "revolution" (recalibration is more appropriate) taking place is via East vs. West. Of course, not every place neatly fits the geography. So what makes something "East" or "West"?

    - Roots and respect for neighbors/ancestors/tradition (East) or flippant pre-occupation with THE FUTURE and narcissism (West)

    - Intangible post-modern goofiness/pseudo-intellectualism (West) or hands-on face to face pragmatic and unpretentious activity (East)

    - Having a solid social and psychological backstop (East) or having such paranoia, insecurity, and credulity that your desperation makes you an easy mark (West).

    This isn't THAT remarkable or unique. We're just getting back to what was once considered business as usual for G.I.s, Silents, and early Boomers. I suspect that many X-ers, being quite jaded at this point and resigned to dealing with annoying strivers, are particularly impressed by the changes.

    A lot of Boomers, maybe sub-conciously, realize that their generation mate may finally curb the excesses which stole the things they once took pride in and enjoyed. Reading some Q/A's with middle aged Trump supporters, it's evident that they've wanted and waited for someone like him for a while by this point. Younger voters are used to feeling stressed out and cheated by now; some might shake their head about Trump's promises and ability.

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  43. So the media is totally blowing it. Until they wake up about the importance of roots and striving, they will continue to not get Trump's wide appeal. It doesn't matter if you're Southern or Northern. Southern evangelicals, Rust belt Catholics, etc. are on board with Trump. Why? Because he wants to restore and protect vital institutions.

    Misanthropic and shallow Plains folk, and gadget/gun mountain hermits, don't want a New Yorker with a traditional, communal, pro-social business record telling them to cut the crap. "Time to bust through the cocoon of a post-modern economy and libertarian autism. We've got to fight for each other, no more bitching".

    Trump is doing very well in the sin and sun states, since his larger than life persona resonates to hedonists. Piety is way more common in the Mountains and Plains. He's notched Hawaii and Nevada with force, hopefully Arizona, (which has fought back against idiotic immigration policies much harder than nearby states), Florida and California are easy wins too.

    If Plains/Mountain folk size each other up based on piety and ostentatious moralizing, the sun states seem to be more shamelessly devoted to Making It and they celebrate kings like Trump.

    The Pac. NW? I dunno too much about this place, other than the big cities being SWPL heaven. Do people there make hay through SWPL posturing being a de facto religion, since people there aren't too pious? If so, who would they vote for? Rubio or Kasich, I guess, since Trump is un-PC and calling for a return to tradition, while Cruz is a Texas cowboy. But maybe there's enough of a Libertarian streak here for Cruz to do pretty well.

    Lifestyle striving and shallowness are common throughout all the West. It just comes in different flavors, although health/body image/athletic competition seems to be the one thing that unites every Western region.

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  44. In Idaho, Cruz also did well in the northern panhandle, which is part of the Spokane WA area. Not very religious place AFAIK. It's quite a bit inland from Seattle, and is probably more part of the Mountain region than the Pacific Coast.

    So expect Cruz to do well in other godless Mountain areas.

    The Pacific Coast will go for Trump if there's no moderate left. And after next Tuesday, Rubio will be out for sure, and probably Kasich too.

    All Trump has to do is play the "New York values" line on a loop, and all of the West Coast will veto Cruz.

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  45. Leb/Syrian Christians have been coming here since the late 19th century and are pretty much assimilated, the more recently-arrived Muslims less so. I was under the impression the latter are the more numerous group in Dearborn, hence the friction with the native population.

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  46. *Although there are probably a good number of Iraqi and other more recently arrived ME Christians there.

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