Just re-posting two initial comments here for now to get the ball rolling, will add to it in the comments as usual.
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Why didn't Dems steal it this time? Well, Dems were promising to steal it -- the state election boards in battleground states, the media, and Obama himself on the campaign trail.
Why didn't they this time? Perhaps the election steal of 2020 was part of the broader civic breakdown of 2014-2020 -- most of which was marked by political violence, hostile rhetoric, etc. Stealing an election is not physical violence, or even heated rhetoric, but it is hyper-competitive, antagonistic, anti-social, etc.
It was also part of the broader hostile crusade by woketards, like censoring and deplatforming everyone during the 2014-2020 abyss. That's also hostile, anti-social, war-like, etc., but not physically violent.
This is part of the Peter Turchin 50-year cycle in civic breakdown, whose last peak was the late '60s and early '70s, then the late 1910s and early '20s, late 1860s and early '70s, a missing explosion circa the late 1810s and early '20s (which was instead the Era of Good Feelings), and another burst around the Revolutionary War of circa 1770.
It's a kind of energy that builds up, and then dissipates, over a cycle lasting 50 years, or 25 years in either direction.
By 2024, it was already clear that the violent symptoms of this pattern had abated -- BLM and Antifa did not burn down half the country in '24, there were no roving executions of cops caught on camera like in the mid-late 2010s, Democrats didn't roam around assassinating Trump supporters for no reason and getting off with no bail, etc. Although there were 2 assassination attempts on Trump himself -- the violence hasn't gone to 0, but it's only 5% of what it was during the 2014-2020 abyss.
Libtards didn't even hold marches when the Supreme Court over-turned their sacred cow of Roe v. Wade in '22. There will be no pussy hat marches when Trump is re-inaugurated.
Twitter allowed itself to be bought out and taken over by Musk, which would not have been allowed in 2014-2020, and they submitted to the new orders about no more crazy censorship and ban waves.
So, the failure or unwillingness of Dems to carry out the steal this time must be part of that general dissipation of policitized zeal from its 2014-2020 peak (abyss). There will be no Russiagate, #MeToo, Resistance, etc. bullshit like there was during Trump's first term, during the peak of politicized zealotry.
I thought since stealing an election wasn't violent or confrontational, they'd still do it -- especially since that's what they were promising for the past few months, right up through most of election night, with Philadelphia halting their vote count early in the evening, waiting for the rest of the state to return their numbers, anticipating a steal. Who am I to second-guess the same message, from the same top-level figures, that was followed up on by a successful insane steal in the very last election?
The energy level declining across all dimensions -- violence, censorship, stealing elections -- is also bipartisan. There was WAY less zeal on the Trump side this cycle, compared to 2015-'16, and even 2020. No one is sincerely posting God-Emperor memes anymore, no one is champing at the bit to lay the first bricks in that Big Beeyooteeful Wall, which never got built the last time. And there's just been far less trolling and teabagging this time than in 2016, and certainly 2020 when it got stolen, preventing the teabagging.
Politicized zeal overall in American society has fallen off of its 2014-2020 explosive peak, and will reach a minimum circa 2045, which will be as non-partisan as the mid-1990s were 50 years earlier. Then the next explosion will happen in the 2060s and early '70s, and the cycle will keep on repeating...
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Also a quick dunk on tech determinist dum-dums, who blamed / credited the explosive zeitgeist of 2014-2020 on newfangled tech (social media, smartphones, "meme magic," online in general).
Well, Americans are even more online than they were in 2016, yet the zealotry has fallen off a cliff after 2020, and will continue plummeting toward a minimum in 2045 -- all while Americans continue to be as online, or even more online, than they were in the 2014-2020 period.
That's the cross-temporal proof. Then there's the cross-sectional proof -- Japanese people have become more and more online since they first adopted the internet. Yet they have experienced no such explosion of politicized zealotry -- whether leading to violence, censorship, heated rhetoric, stolen elections, or whatever else.
All technologies are mere tools, indifferent to how they're used, and impotent to shape, channel, or nudge human societal systems or individual behavior. Rather, the dynamics of society and individual psychology lead to some people using some tech for some purpose in some state of affairs, and some others to use some other tech (or even the same tech) for some other purpose when they're in some other state of affairs.
Americans didn't need social media or the internet or online anonymity to carry out an equally explosive bout of zealotry in the late 1960s and early '70s, or the late 1910s and early '20s, or the Civil War or the Revolution -- or the civic breakdown of the 60s AD during the Roman Empire, most of whom weren't even literate, let alone employing a communicative medium other than speech sounds coming out of the mouth.
When the cycle enters a crazy zealous phase, they use whatever means / media they have at their disposal, and when the cycle leaves the crazy zealous phase, they either use different media that have no stain of the zealous-associated media, or they use the same ol' media for a different purpose.
Technologies are utterly indifferent to how they're used, and they have no deterministic or even probabilistic influence stemming from inherently from themselves, toward human behavior, at any scale (person, group, society, etc.).
Homework assignment for right-wingers emphasizing the excess of 15-20 million votes that Biden supposedly got in 2020 vs. Harris in 2024, but also vs. the Democrat in 2016 and 2012 and 2008, etc., which was one of the clearest signs of massive fraud in 2020 -- and has now been confirmed by it collapsing back to Democrat vote totals for 2008, '12, and '16, without the society-wide coordinated steal machine of 2020.
ReplyDeleteRepeat this very simple intuitive analysis -- at smaller scales. Go state by state, but start with the stolen states of 2020. With 15-20 million fake votes in the nationwide pile for 2020, undoubtedly all states were contaminated by them. But if the purpose was to steal certain battleground states, the fradulent excess should be very apparent in those ones at a minimum.
Go finer-grained, focusing on the big cities in the stolen states of 2020 (Philadelphia, Detroit, Milwaukee, Atlanta and its suburbs, etc.).
Perhaps two levels of fine-scale -- counties making up a single metro area and going metro by metro within a single state's boundaries (some metro areas span multiple states), and even finer going single county by county.
This will look even more stark and revealing, cuz I doubt that the 15-20 million fake votes landed in rural counties, and there are a lot of rural or small-pop counties. The fraud would've been concentrated in the counties that house the dominant city of the state, its broader metro area, and maybe some second-tier cities as well.
I will get the ball rolling, but will not flesh it out entirely -- that's someone else's job.
2020 Democrat vote fraud, as shown in vote totals for Pennsylvania statewide, Philadelphia County, and the Philadelphia metro area (within PA), from 2008 through 2024.
ReplyDeleteThe vote is still be tallied or tabulated or reported, so it'll increase somewhat, but not drastically. The '24 figures reflect what is reported on electionreturns.pa.gov on the afternoon of 11/7.
Pennsylvania, D votes (mill)
2008: 3.28
2012: 2.99
2016: 2.97
2020: 3.46
2024: 3.3
Without the gargantuan steal machine in '24, D votes plummeted back to Obama '08 levels, and not too high above '12 and '16 levels. D's lost 160K votes between '20 and '24.
The surge between '16 and '20 was about a 5% increase in votes -- that may sound small, but 5% annual inflation is big, especially in a large-pop statewide figure that should be fairly stable. And it was not meant to flip PA to being 90% D -- just enough to steal it back across the narrow margin that Trump won it with in '16.
Philadelphia County, D votes (thou)
2008: 596
2012: 589
2016: 584
2020: 604
2024: 553
Because Philadelphia initiated, then walked back, the steal on election night '24, by halting the vote count or holding back that information, there are still some left to be reported. Nevertheless, so far there are some 50K fewer votes in the county in '24 vs. '20.
The surge between '16 and '20 was about a 3.5% increase, similar to the statewide pattern.
For the Philadelphia metro area, aggregate Philadelphia, Bucks, Chester, Delaware, and Montgomery counties.
Philadelphia metro, D votes (mill)
2008: 1.35
2012: 1.28
2016: 1.33
2020: 1.52
2024: 1.44
Another plummet in D votes by 80K between '20 and '24, though still notably elevated above even Obama '08 levels, which is prima facie unbelievable.
The surge between '16 and '20 was a comically ridiculous 14% increase, an order of magnitude above the surges in the state or county scale.
This super-high excess, and the still very elevated levels vs. Obama '08, says that the steal was concentrated in the entire Philly metro area, not just the city, and that they were absolutely pumping out fake votes like mad in '24.
However, their pile of fake votes was only half as big as it was in '20, and they were going up against a higher pile of R votes statewide. Trump got 3.38 mill in '20, increasing to 3.45 mill in '24.
The fake-vote-printer was only working at half-output, and had to tackle a wider gap = D's called off the steal that was already in motion.
Better luck next time, suckers!
To cut some slack to the black urban working and lumpen classes in the city of Philadelphia, and to heap more of the blame onto the white fake email job MSNBC junkie psychos in the suburbs, have a look at the vote surge between '16 and '20 by county within the Philly metro.
ReplyDeleteD vote increase, 2016-'20 (%)
Phil: 4
Buck: 23
Ches: 29
Dela: 17
Mont: 25
Again, even the Philadelphia County results are sus, but the other 4 suburban counties are outright unbelievable. That's where the lion's share of the fake-vote-printer was operating during the steal of 2020.
On the other side of the steal, compare the decrease from '20 to '24
D vote decrease, 2020-'24 (%)
Phil: 8
Buck: 5
Ches: 1
Dela: 5
Mont: 3
Philadelphia actually threw in the towel more than the suburbs did. The stealers remained far more psycho and committed in the affluent suburbs than in the shithole city itself, even if all of them were less psycho than in 2020.
Just something to remember when writing your fanfic about who will be put into the camps on the Day of Truth and Reconciliation.
Back on planet Earth, though, Trump won't touch the wealthy white libtard suburbanites who are his most committed enemies, cuz he's a (disjunctive) neolib and prizes yuppies first and foremost, and probably won't bother going after the less-important blacks of the city proper (cuz waycism).
But just so the historical record is clear, it's the middle-class white professional progs and libs who are the problem, not emotionally exhausted blacks from the city.
I don't mean wealthy white suburbanites voted more D than urban black workers. That's not what "the enemy" means -- that's just "the other team" or "rival" in a fair-play competition.
ReplyDeleteBy enemy I mean the cheaters, psychos, breaking or re-writing rules willy-nilly, no concern for long-term stability in pursuit of short-term selfish gain, destroying the entire competition by melting down the norms, just so you can win this one single match.
The psychos and cheaters are middle-class white Democrats, not urban working / lumpen blacks.
In fact, given the psycho reactions by middle-class white Democrats to Hispanics, and Arabs for lowering their level of support for the Democrat this time, I wouldn't be surprised if the Philly Dem machine isn't going to launch the most KKK-tier tirade against the blacks of the city itself, in private of course.
ReplyDelete"While all counties had somewhat lower vote totals than in 2020... SOME OF US managed to hold the line better than OTHERS OF US..."
"[Sucks teeth] Why don'tchu jus' come on out 'n' SAY IT!"
"If you damn pavement apes had just gotten off your LAZY ASSES and done the work, if we didn't have to BABYSIT YOU so much... maybe we could've pulled it off again! There! Happy?! I hope you are!"
Imprison white middle-class Democrat voters, for the welfare of all races, sexes, and classes.
Fraud was rampant in a small-pop deep-blue state like Vermont in 2020 as well, not just battleground states.
ReplyDeleteVermont, D votes (thou)
2008: 219
2012: 199
2016: 197
2020: 243
2024: 215
The surge between '16 and '20 was a comical 23%, which has since crashed back down below Obama '08 levels, though still a bit higher than '12 and '16. (The '16 figure includes both Clinton and Bernie write-ins.)
So it looks like the fake-vote-printer was not just trying to flip battleground states, but to run up the nationwide popular vote on top of that, to deliver a SUPER-DUPER stinging rebuke to Trump. Sad and pathetic -- and also totally impotent, since doing so made it unbelievable, and just reminded all sides that the people favored Trump rather than Biden.
Moving onto bellwether analysis, start at the state level -- Ohio and Florida are long-term historical swing states. Rarely, one of them votes against the eventual occupant of the White House -- but almost never do both of them vote against the eventual occupant.
ReplyDeleteIn 2020, while others were doing bellwether county analysis, I did that for the state-level, and going back through all of American history, not just the past several cycles. The only elections were both Ohio and Florida voted against the eventual occupant of the White House were 1960 and 2020.
The 1960 election is admitted to have been stolen, although no one makes a big deal out of it anymore. It was stolen through the city of Chicago, during the Daley Machine's heyday, and since Illinois used to be a swing state in that era (not a long-term swing state), and has a huge population, that was just enough to narrowly steal the nationwide election. It was not a comical steal of a dozen battleground states as in 2020.
In 2024, both Ohio and Florida voted the same way -- and in favor of the eventual occupant, restoring the system to normal. It's the exact same candidate, too -- Trump -- not just "a Republican" or "the same choice, regardless of party or individual".
How did both Ohio and Florida vote for that same exact individual in 2020, yet the other party occupied the White House? Cuz the other side stole it, in only the 2nd time in American history (the other being 1960). Ohio and Florida have been states since the 1848 election onwards -- plenty of a track record to judge from.
See this post from 2020 about how to do bellwether analysis at the county level. It's actually different from what most people mean when they say "bellwether counties", more clear and standardized. It showed that 2020 was not just anomalous in itself, but highly compared to 2016.
ReplyDeleteThe statistical test for counties is in one of the comments, not the main body of the post, which also focused on state-level (Ohio + Florida) analysis.
https://akinokure.blogspot.com/2020/11/judging-soundness-of-elections-from.html
I'll have to wait until later when all the results are in to see how anomalous 2024 looks -- but from the state-level being normal, I'm guessing the county-level will be normal, too.