tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19346366.post7353221666633866992..comments2024-03-28T21:56:51.675-04:00Comments on Face to Face: Economic collapse, a catalyst for realignment that forges a new dominant coalitionagnostichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12967177967469961883noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19346366.post-69239782434841440312023-04-14T03:51:53.680-04:002023-04-14T03:51:53.680-04:00We still don't know whether hyper-partisanship...We still don't know whether hyper-partisanship or economic collapse is a larger factor in political realignment, because there was no economic collapse in Trump's time in office. The people in power managed to stave off economic collapse until Trump was kicked out of office by the Democrats in 2020. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19346366.post-53626884977539744102018-09-16T17:27:37.487-04:002018-09-16T17:27:37.487-04:00"The decline in birthrates since the 1970s, c... "The decline in birthrates since the 1970s, coupled with later and later entry into the workforce, reduces the number of workers to each retiree. During the 2020s this trend will intensify. It is not so much that workers will be supporting retirees, although that will be a factor. The problem will be that retirees, drawing on equity in homes and retirement funds, will still be consuming at high rates. Therefore, workers will be needed to fill their demand. With a declining workforce, and steady demand for goods and services, inflation will soar because the cost of labor will go through the roof. It will also accelerate the rate at which retirees exhaust their wealth."<br /><br />"Retirees will divide into two groups. Those lucky or smart enough to have equity reserves in houses and 401(k)s will be forced to sell those assets. A second group of retirees will have few or no assets. Social Security, under the best of circumstances, leaves people in abject poverty. The pressure to maintain reasonable standards of living and health care for the baby boomers will be intense, and it will come from a group that will continue to retain disproportionate political power because of their numbers. Retirees vote disproportionately to other groups, and the baby boomer vote will be particularly huge. They will vote themselves benefits"<br /><br />"Governments around the world - this won't only be happening in the United States - will be forced to either increase taxes or borrow heavily. If the former, they will be taxing the very group that would be benefiting from the increased wages necessitated by the labor shortage. If there is increased borrowing, the government will be entering a shrinking a shrinking capital market at the same time that boomers are withdrawing capital from that market, further driving up interest rates and, in a replay of the 1970s, increasing inflation due to a surging supply of money. Unemployment is the only thing that won't echo the 1970s. Whoever can work will have a job - at high wages - but those wages will be badly squeezed by taxes or inflation."<br /><br />http://www.mysearch.org.uk/website1/pdf/715.2.pdfCurtisnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19346366.post-44400858205968595472018-09-14T16:51:38.496-04:002018-09-14T16:51:38.496-04:00agnostic, the US has always had serious issues col...agnostic, the US has always had serious issues collecting more than 20% of GDP in taxes at the Federal level <br /><br />Its colloquially called Hauser's Law and and appears to be a function or our society and the Laffer Curve <br /><br />You just aren't getting more than that under any regime so you have to borrow or mint. <br /><br />I'll note the few decades of ultra taxation (90% plus) didn't last long and weren't to raise revenue, They were intended to close the gap between the wealthy and the rest making sure they couldn't opt out on policy, They did not do this however as they just ended up as a barrier to entry to new money which was unwise. You can only "level" like that if you seize property and assets which was not possible. <br /><br />As for the D?R split, both parties are in essence the same, Globalist, Corporate Property and Socially Liberal <br /><br />Its the worst of both worlds <br /><br />There are differences in who gets wealth redistribution (D, favor social spending R, Military Keynesianism ) but its just the same team with different jerseys<br /><br /> Alas I don't think the Bernie/Warren wing or the Pat Buchanan/Trump wing has successors or will be allowed political power<br /><br /> The Reds that have run recently Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and the others are typical Latin American Socialists and won't fix anything if they can get power which is far from certain. <br /><br />AB.Prospernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19346366.post-9212532010343334022018-09-07T15:56:50.004-04:002018-09-07T15:56:50.004-04:00Read again: it says slashing taxes deprives the go...Read again: it says slashing taxes deprives the govt of "a way" -- not all ways -- to finance their spending. Obviously by not paying from money they collect through taxes, they finance govt spending through debt.<br /><br />After stable natl debt and trade deficits under the New Deal, the Reagan coalition sent both of them off into outer space. That continues right through today under the Trump admin, showing that it is not a realignment but business as usual.<br /><br />Democrats are the Republicans of 10 years ago, not the other way around. GOP is the dominant party in the Reagan era, Democrats have to adapt to what works for their dominant rivals. With Trump voters and elite sectors wanting a major break from Reaganism -- but not getting it from the party elites -- that means the Democrats must now offer a major break from Reaganism, if they want to survive.agnostichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12967177967469961883noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19346366.post-81177545825198490522018-09-07T15:07:32.850-04:002018-09-07T15:07:32.850-04:00My initial reaction is that that's a credible ...My initial reaction is that that's a credible interpretive framework. I'm not sure it matters much for the little guy, but for the political players is will be a serious restructuring without any real fundamental change. At some point fundamental change can't wait. At some point. Hard to predict when this all goes belly up. I must decent on this: "...slashing taxes across the board has deprived the government of a way to pay for its programs..." lol Government programs are never deprived for a way to pay. They have the printing and electronic press and the superlative thug force. All that Social Security surplus that was never saved.<br /><br />There were plenty of Democrats with power during the Reagan-made coalition. And what is a Republican if not a Democrat of ten years ago? Such stout traditionalists they are. And if we look at your interpretive framework, and see the repetition, they and the 'Liberals' really are traditionalists, just elitist ones.'Reality' Doughttp://realitydoug.wordpress.comnoreply@blogger.com