tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19346366.post6204080368979801089..comments2024-03-28T21:56:51.675-04:00Comments on Face to Face: Battle for blue states helped by Hillary's insulated cluelessnessagnostichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12967177967469961883noreply@blogger.comBlogger39125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19346366.post-81798610730088025422016-06-07T02:14:44.516-04:002016-06-07T02:14:44.516-04:00"The DNC temporarily stripped Michigan as wel..."The DNC temporarily stripped Michigan as well as Florida of their delegates for holding their primaries before a certain date. Thus turnout was not as high as it would have been."<br /><br />Not enough to neutralize the 100% increase in turnout... maybe it's "only" 90%. Boatloads more Michiganders turned out this time, and as elsewhere, that was to the benefit of the Bernie movement.<br /><br />Not a group that resonates with Hillary "NAFTA" Clinton.agnostichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12967177967469961883noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19346366.post-86579189892239329542016-06-07T02:10:56.557-04:002016-06-07T02:10:56.557-04:00NJ was historically more Republican than NY. Durin...NJ was historically more Republican than NY. During the New Deal era, states touching the Great Lakes shifted toward solid blue or purple states, overturning their solid red status when Republican meant Northern.<br /><br />PA doesn't have much population near Lake Erie, and NJ has none. So they weren't really part of the New Deal blue states. They only turned solid blue in 1992.<br /><br />The Philly suburbs in PA are Trump country, and a big chunk of New Jersey lives in the Philly metro. I'm sure the NYC metro in NJ is worse, but there are also a lot of old-timers there who will vote like Long Islanders and Staten Islanders, who will go big-league for Trump.<br /><br />I think Trump will play well in NJ if there's little to no emphasis on Culture War topics. I'm glad he got the Supreme Court picks out of the way, so they won't be news in the fall -- no one will care about old news by that point.agnostichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12967177967469961883noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19346366.post-9921269652546007572016-06-07T01:25:18.794-04:002016-06-07T01:25:18.794-04:00@Agnostic
By targeting New York and Pennsylvania...@Agnostic <br /><br />By targeting New York and Pennsylvania, Trump by default also targets New Jersey as well as Delaware and to a lesser extent Connecticut. I hope Trump does have success in the Northeast so as to show the GOP how to win in the Northeast. Republicans in these states have long been hampered by the cuckservative's cousin, the pozerate. <br /><br />The Pozerate globalist Republican thinks that in order to win in these states they must have a similar agenda as progressives, SJWs, and PC culture except when it comes to taxes and crime. They want an SWPL GOP free of blue collar voters and the like. The current VP candidate of Libertarian party, Bill Weld, is an example of this. <br /><br />When it comes to the midwest, Iowa would probably be the state most favorable to Trump out of the Lutheran belt. Obama is very unpopular there. I wouldn't read too much into the increased turnout for Democrats in Michigan from 2008. The DNC temporarily stripped Michigan as well as Florida of their delegates for holding their primaries before a certain date. Thus turnout was not as high as it would have been. <br />HBSnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19346366.post-13940306403384214502016-06-02T15:55:44.387-04:002016-06-02T15:55:44.387-04:00This comment has been removed by the author.Derrick Bonsellhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10624976943924251694noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19346366.post-1796912286730348152016-06-02T15:06:32.277-04:002016-06-02T15:06:32.277-04:00This comment has been removed by the author.Derrick Bonsellhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10624976943924251694noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19346366.post-25300789715657266472016-06-02T14:53:20.346-04:002016-06-02T14:53:20.346-04:00I stand corrected, maybe he's also influenced ...I stand corrected, maybe he's also influenced by the Japanese shikatai ga nai outlook.Marcusnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19346366.post-18195315527945036262016-06-02T13:31:28.613-04:002016-06-02T13:31:28.613-04:00This comment has been removed by the author.Derrick Bonsellhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10624976943924251694noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19346366.post-13368332504458980132016-06-02T11:00:26.847-04:002016-06-02T11:00:26.847-04:00I lol'd at Takei trying to shepherd Bernie vot...I lol'd at Takei trying to shepherd Bernie voters to Hillary, typical milquetoast boomer queerMarcusnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19346366.post-69981890737446028682016-06-01T22:08:00.957-04:002016-06-01T22:08:00.957-04:00What gives with Bernie's shyness about the E-m...What gives with Bernie's shyness about the E-mails and the Clinton cash/foundation/bribery? Bernie will make fairly generic attacks on the Dem establishment and Hilary's character but he mostly doesn't get into specifics. He has brought up Hilary's Wall Street speech content/fees to which there's a definite whiff of sleaze but not the same kind of stench we're getting from the E-mails and the Clinton foundation.<br /><br />Bernie it seems is fairly easy to push around and is lacking Trump's wealth/power as well as Trump's sheer tenacity. Bernie would cave a lot quicker, and perhaps the Dems told him "we'll let you hang around and fire up Millennials, maybe even let you and your supporters have a token presence at the convention, just don't be too hard on Hilary please".<br /><br />Did the Dems intimidate (maybe even bribe)Bernie into aiding the cover-up of the big scandal? That is, the Clinton's decades long reign producing many decadent figures of whom many are still in government or important "private" institutions. The most incendiary corruption involves high level operatives either actively committing espionage or at least just looking the other way often with a tactit understanding that silence would be rewarded.<br /><br />The media is a joke. The Ken Starr fiasco, and the other tomfoolery regarding Bill's adventures, doesn't scratch the real problem. The media has had decades to blow up the Clinton's. But instead of bothering with real investigation, they explain to everybody that these "rumors" surrounding the Clintons are just that. Rumors, "unsubstantiated" per the Gov.'s official reports.<br /><br />In the 60's and 70's, the media prided itself on unmasking G.I.'s and Silents. Funny how the Boomer dominated media since the 90's has basically become an elite country club that doesn't dirty it's hands with investigations.Ferylnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19346366.post-27032702516476563522016-06-01T11:13:45.546-04:002016-06-01T11:13:45.546-04:00So glad my Francophone ancestors left Canada. The ...So glad my Francophone ancestors left Canada. The formerly French Acadie became Nova Scotia, and I think the Maritime region of Canada in general is heavily Scottish and close to Canada's equivalent to Appalachia.Marcusnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19346366.post-27250492761355212992016-06-01T02:11:23.507-04:002016-06-01T02:11:23.507-04:00"any thoughts on Kevin O'Leary, the guy w..."any thoughts on Kevin O'Leary, the guy who is trying to position himself as the Canadian Donald Trump."<br /><br />Kevin O'Leary sounds like a typical libertarian -- boo taxes, yay goat-fucking.<br /><br />I'm skeptical about a Canadian Donald Trump existing. Canada is not as Celtic as America, especially the early settlers who laid the cultural foundation. I could easily see an Australian Trump coming around -- they're Celtic and Border English (i.e., Anglophone Celts).<br /><br />The hotbed of nationalism in Canada is Quebec, so if anything, he'd come from there -- although he might be more interested in disentangling Quebec from the rest of Canada and the world.<br /><br />Quebec was the earliest settled region in Canada, just like Trump country is the earliest settled places in America. They have a strong sense of cultural and genetic identity. And they also have the extension of the Appalachian chain.agnostichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12967177967469961883noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19346366.post-83423999662192886822016-06-01T01:54:48.652-04:002016-06-01T01:54:48.652-04:00"We got our populist, but the Democrats did n..."We got our populist, but the Democrats did not...<br />Doesn't this point to a 50/50 nationalist/globalist split in the country?"<br /><br />It's only 50-50 among the parties, not among the voters. Folks are pretty united around Trump on his side, and a big chunk of the Bernie people will not be voting for Crooked Hillary in the fall.<br /><br />So maybe more like 70-30 in favor of populism and nationalism, among voters.<br /><br />Something like 45% of the public supported Trump's temp ban on Muslims, if it was worded without mentioning Trump's name. And most people believe that the globalist trade deals are bad for American workers.agnostichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12967177967469961883noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19346366.post-49808297622249453342016-06-01T01:48:40.590-04:002016-06-01T01:48:40.590-04:00"Sanders and his supporters were not aggressi..."Sanders and his supporters were not aggressive enough at the beginning."<br /><br />The biggest mistake has been not attacking her on her private email server, which she used to secretly conduct her business of selling out American state favors to foreign mega-donors to the Clinton Foundation.<br /><br />Bernie emphatically gave it up at the first debate, and he continues to insist on not going there. Most of his surrogates I see in the media don't go there either. And the supporters on Twitter, who get interviewed at rallies, etc., don't raise it either.<br /><br />I see it as a failure to be relevant to the news cycle. Sure, Hillary voting for the Iraq War when Bernie didn't is a major distinction and a damning mark on her record. But the Iraq War is not in the news cycle, unless you tie it to the power vacuum left by toppling Iraq's leader, and therefore the growth of ISIS.<br /><br />That's how a media-savvy guy like Trump brings up the Iraq War -- tie it to ISIS, which is often in the news cycle, even though the war itself is over.<br /><br />Likewise, those hefty "speech" fees that she got from Wall Street in exchange for big-bank-friendly policies -- it's not in the news cycle. There's no independent ongoing story about Wall Street corruption, too big to fail, the repeal of Glass-Steagall, etc.<br /><br />You'd have to tie it to something similar in the news cycle, like the ongoing investigations over her corruption while Sec of State. Wall Street, foreign governments -- she'll take big bucks from anyone willing to fatten the Clinton Foundation coffers, and she feels no compunction doing whatever favors in return.<br /><br />Make the people see the broader pattern of her corruption, not just that isolated case that is not relevant to the news cycle.<br /><br />"Taking the high road" on these issues is really just an excuse not to have to engage people who aren't already on board with the program.<br /><br />I'm sure her phone-bankers and door-knockers went the extra mile to make their criticisms of Hillary relevant to what a randomly-dialed person would already know about her from the news cycle.<br /><br />But most of them want to stand apart from the media world, issue their denunciations, and then those who are good and wise will hear and follow their call.<br /><br />Trump knows that that's a failing strategy, apart from being on the misanthropic side. Get into the news cycle and stay relevant as much as possible. Trump can also drive the cycle on his own, which Bernie could not do at will. Still, if you want to reach people, you can't stand aloof and unsullied by the media world.agnostichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12967177967469961883noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19346366.post-61221661465144092002016-06-01T01:29:36.712-04:002016-06-01T01:29:36.712-04:00"I'm skeptical of Bernie supporters votin..."I'm skeptical of Bernie supporters voting Trump in any numbers. They are, on the while, limp dick cucks who will in the end obediently toe the party line, just like their leader."<br /><br />You're in for a pleasant surprise, then, not that it'll do anything to cheer you up.<br /><br />Obviously Trump will not win over the progressive activists like Van Jones, Nomiki Konst, etc. Or their crowd of followers who attend the rallies.<br /><br />Fortunately for us, they aren't a drop in the bucket of Bernie voters.<br /><br />In Michigan, Bernie won despite the black bloc in Detroit. Moreover, he won due to a turnout that was a 100% increase from 2008. If those newcomers had stayed home, Crooked Hillary would have swept the state.<br /><br />Do you think there are enough progressive activist types to account for the size of the Dem primary electorate DOUBLING over eight years? In Michigan no less? It's impossible.<br /><br />Instead, those are mostly working and middle-class people who are drawn to his populist economic policies, anti-corruption in the government, and non-interventionist approach to foreign policy. Remind you of any other candidate you know?<br /><br />Why yes, that would be the guy who won Michigan in the GOP primary, who makes no bones about heavy protectionist measures to keep auto manufacturing jobs in Michigan if the management is intent on slashing costs just to line their pockets.<br /><br />The avalanche of newcomers in the Dem primary are going to need somewhere to go, and they will naturally go to Trump in Michigan.<br /><br />Now, in Vermont, the population is more progressive-oriented and shitlibby to begin with. So I don't think Trump will take Vermont. Ditto Minnesota.<br /><br />It doesn't matter if "only" 20% of Bernie supporters go to Trump -- that will be very uneven around the country, because Bernie's constituency was different in different places. In states where it was shitlibby, like Vermont, we will get a lot less than 20%. In economically depressed states, we will get a lot more than 20% -- enough to put us over the top.agnostichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12967177967469961883noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19346366.post-70100891097864191982016-06-01T00:25:00.527-04:002016-06-01T00:25:00.527-04:00Agnostic,
I believe strongly that we'll have ...Agnostic,<br /><br />I believe strongly that we'll have our populist in 4 years, but for 2016 I'm worried about whether the nation is ready and that it's going to be very close.<br />The Republicans, as we've discussed before, are ahead of the curve with shifting toward nationalism. We got our populist, but the Democrats did not...<br />Doesn't this point to a 50/50 nationalist/globalist split in the country?<br />One thing that gives me hope is that we will continue as a nation in that direction: We'll be more populist in November than we are today.Dahlianoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19346366.post-16822268134747717902016-05-31T23:03:11.301-04:002016-05-31T23:03:11.301-04:00Sanders and his supporters were not aggressive eno...Sanders and his supporters were not aggressive enough at the beginning. It wasn't until March when his campaign started kicking it into high gear. He was never going to do well in the Dixie states but if he was more aggressive, he could have flipped a few more states like Iowa, the New England region, Ohio, etc. The superdelegates still would have put Hillary over the top but would turn the pledged delegates into a dead heat or may have given Sanders a little bit of an edge.Random Dude on the Internetnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19346366.post-57158052730668803092016-05-31T21:05:11.654-04:002016-05-31T21:05:11.654-04:00Hey, Agnostic, any thoughts on Kevin O'Leary, ...Hey, Agnostic, any thoughts on Kevin O'Leary, the guy who is trying to position himself as the Canadian Donald Trump. Here are some videos.<br /><br />https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ADOdsG3HaOk<br />https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=QIIqwQdDsrA<br />https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=9QCK5E92eyc<br />https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=t0dC7O1nhGc<br /><br />Seems pretty weak to me. As though he did exactly what you warned politicians not to do when emulating Trump. He thinks the "loud business man" part is what appeals to people who like Trump, not his nationalist-populist policies.BioCultBeamDeltanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19346366.post-84654082959972979522016-05-31T20:10:03.088-04:002016-05-31T20:10:03.088-04:00Oh my the hacks! They have not been getting under...Oh my the hacks! They have not been getting under my skin like they have much of alt-Right twitter or Trump supporters in general, but that has started to change. I'm not even bothered by the potential harm they could cause.<br /><br />It's the constant navel-gazing articles. The world revolves completely around them. Dozens of articles about their principles and how the personal impact of sticking to their principles and also how their actions regarding their principles effect change.<br /><br />Principles. Must feel good about self. Principles. Must be honest with one's self. More principles. Took a week-long break from writing my memoirs to think more deeply about my principles. Principles while sitting by the fireplace enjoying some tea. Principles for breakfast.<br /><br />A guy named Caleb Howe, never heard of him and can't remember what he even said, but I came across something he was proud of and, "What on God's green earth is wrong with you?"<br />Dahlianoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19346366.post-40723894824519180582016-05-31T19:53:57.590-04:002016-05-31T19:53:57.590-04:00I'm skeptical of Bernie supporters voting Trum...I'm skeptical of Bernie supporters voting Trump in any numbers. They are, on the while, limp dick cucks who will in the end obediently toe the party line, just like their leader. Staying home, I can buy, but we all know Sanders will cave and endorse Hillary come convention time. He's too weak to stand up to a pair of fat retards in the middle of a crowd of his own supporters. Hillary will make him her bitch easily, and he'll do the "we've got ta come tagether ta stop Trump" line as instructed.<br /><br />Yes, I'm aware of the West Virginia poll, but that state is disproportionately white and blue collar. Not to mention reliably red anyhow.Calvinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10145579801829169386noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19346366.post-66873366271860821402016-05-31T19:34:55.444-04:002016-05-31T19:34:55.444-04:00The primary system is rigged against Bernie, from ...The primary system is rigged against Bernie, from the very beginning. Unfortunately for the Sanders supporters, they were not able to overcome the rigging like the Trump movement did against its own rigged system. Trump voters turned out in such massive numbers...<br /><br />Or it could have been simply due to that National Enquirer story about Lyin' Ted's father being connected to Oswald during the time of the JFK assassination. He pulled out right away, when it had always looked as though he'd be in until the end of a nasty Convention.<br /><br />Either way, the Sanders supporters haven't had as large of victories, and/or their operatives were not willing to leak damning stories to the National Enquirer and force Crooked Hillary to pull out.<br /><br />Even if Hillary were to be forced out, the Dem Establishment would never in a million years appoint Bernie as her replacement.<br /><br />Like the RNC, the DNC is not in the business of winning elections -- else they'd never let Hillary (Jeb) run. Rather, they're in the business of personally feeding at the trough of donor money that goes around for analysts, consultants, pollsters, commentators, delegates, politicians, etc.<br /><br />With the Clinton machine powering the primary season, there is billions of dollars to go around.<br /><br />If Bernie became the nominee, the spigot would get shut off to these Establishment parasites (he said he'd dump Debbie Wasserman-Schultz as chair of DNC). Just like Trump is shutting down the gravy train to all these worthless hacks in the GOP (Karl Rove, etc.).agnostichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12967177967469961883noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19346366.post-64695737261760578482016-05-31T13:26:33.869-04:002016-05-31T13:26:33.869-04:00Your reasoning is convincing, but you imply that T...Your reasoning is convincing, but you imply that Trump will face Hillary and not Sanders. Why?<br />Carlnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19346366.post-89849658913048207242016-05-31T13:04:16.200-04:002016-05-31T13:04:16.200-04:00We're also forgetting the Diebold Factor: deli...We're also forgetting the Diebold Factor: deliberate or "accidental" hacking and reprogramming of voting machines. That is likely to give Hillary an increase of D% that Trump will have to overcome with real votes. I will estimate the Diebold factor (D) to be 5% in Hillary's favor.Robert What?https://www.blogger.com/profile/03863449539859132763noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19346366.post-88579878376875356322016-05-31T12:01:35.274-04:002016-05-31T12:01:35.274-04:00New Jersey: Clinton 38 vs Trump 34
Barely outside...New Jersey: Clinton 38 vs Trump 34<br /><br />Barely outside the m.o.e.<br /><br />Fist-pumpers for Trump!agnostichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12967177967469961883noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19346366.post-8638380759891639602016-05-31T12:01:23.160-04:002016-05-31T12:01:23.160-04:00Remember the fun days of playing Warcraft 3, commo...Remember the fun days of playing Warcraft 3, common strategy an aggressor would usually commit to some "harassment" of the opposing enemy's areas and base, the fewer resources committed the better, while the aggressor's own base would invest/setup/"tech" for more advanced units and upgrades making for a rapidly while the defender is forced to go out of his way and drain resources to deal with the non-stop incursions to the detriment of being able to properly build up more advanced units.<br />Watching Trump's 15 state strategy reminds me a lot of something like that. As long as he still cheaply and efficiently runs his campaign, just spreading the battlefield further and broader weakens the opposition in the more attainable battleground states. Just forcing some previously unattainable states into single digit territory can do enough damage to Hillary's campaign as she diverts away from say Ohio or Florida.<br />All Hail the Trumpening as I have been saying.Angry Midwesternerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02284513805871450485noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19346366.post-5046973864963552842016-05-31T06:55:44.686-04:002016-05-31T06:55:44.686-04:00A big factor that needs to be discussed is that Tr...A big factor that needs to be discussed is that Trump has invigorated his base but Hillary has not done the same. If you want to be a sadist and inflict pain on yourself, ask a Hillary supporter why they're for Hillary. It's rarely about how great her policies are and more about how they want to stop Trump. Obama she ain't.<br /><br />It's much easier and more motivating to vote for something than it is to vote against something. I think Hillary is hoping that Trump's comments are so outrageous that people (women and minorities) will be motivated to vote against him (aka a vote for her) but if people are that demoralized, they will probably stay home.<br /><br />The political pundit class assumes that the voter turnout demographics will remain as they did in 2012. The Nate Silver model (and his career) depends on it. If there is a surge in working class white men, it completely shatters their model. Rather than crowing about permanent majorities by the 2040s, it might be the 2060s if not later than that. They will smugly assure themselves that non-whites will soon replace whites but the country is still 2/3s white and as mentioned, the non-white turnout is low. If Republicans tap into populist sentiment, they might be able to peel off a decent chunk of non-white voters who don't want gibs. Not enough for a majority. So if it ends up being whites + working minorities, the Democrats may be the ones locked out of the White House instead of Republicans.Random Dude on the Internetnoreply@blogger.com