tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19346366.post4093716837788286372..comments2024-03-28T21:56:51.675-04:00Comments on Face to Face: Closed borders allowed people to live normal lives, free of pandemic threats; Return to open-borders Gilded Age means return of life-disruptionagnostichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12967177967469961883noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19346366.post-30244192188070094662020-03-22T19:04:09.060-04:002020-03-22T19:04:09.060-04:00what i dont get is that for yrs people on the frin...what i dont get is that for yrs people on the fringes of politics both left and right have been hoping for liberalism to collapse and now when we might be nearly there everybody is panicking and want the state to come save us from the reboot of history.<br />hic rhodos hic salta. yung jungnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19346366.post-83583640164643887612020-03-17T20:13:50.358-04:002020-03-17T20:13:50.358-04:00Perhaps this also represents the bottoming out of ...Perhaps this also represents the bottoming out of the cocooning trend, with the government shutting down certain public spaces and mandating "social distancing".<br /><br />This could be rock bottom, the event that makes people realize the trend has gone too far, and its time to start frequenting public spaces again.<br /><br />Walking my dog, there were oddly enough significantly more people than usual outside, making fun of 'social distancing'("does it apply to dogs?")Curtisnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19346366.post-21093594009633185052020-03-16T20:21:53.001-04:002020-03-16T20:21:53.001-04:00And don't say that you "expect" anyt...And don't say that you "expect" anything about the outcomes of this pandemic. It's OK to say that you're ignorant of epidemiology, ecology, math, and history -- most people are.<br /><br />Just say, "Don't know much about biology," and ask a question from someone who does, rather than make declarative statements as though you're the one who knows something. "Could it be that this thing will only kill in the 10s of thousands in the US if we don't resort to aggressive measures?"<br /><br />Until you've put in the man-hours (and years) on mathematical biology, history, etc., just ask rather than pronounce.<br /><br />I'm not going hard on you specifically, only using this instance as an example of a general point.<br /><br />And of course, even knowing math and basic epidemiology is no guarantee that the person knows what's going on. Most of those people are unfortunately defective in evolutionary and ecological biology.<br /><br />They think quarantines are impossible, or discriminating. They think pathogens necessarily evolve to get less virulent over time. They don't understand what happens when you open demographic flow between all corners of the globe, for infectious diseases. And they sure as shit don't know any history to draw on -- other than some recent spectacle, in this case the Spanish Flu pandemic (literally the only example they'll cite).agnostichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12967177967469961883noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19346366.post-78251949230430608352020-03-16T20:11:02.831-04:002020-03-16T20:11:02.831-04:00Wrong: the reality is R0 was only 1.7 for H2N2, vs...Wrong: the reality is R0 was only 1.7 for H2N2, vs. closer to 2.5 for COVID-19.<br /><br />See Table 2:<br /><br />https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4169819/<br /><br />Thus mitigating H2N2 didn't require such stringent measures. In fact, they already had the main measure in place -- a very tight border, esp. vis-a-vis Asia.<br /><br />For COVID-19, we require much greater levels of reaction ("panic," "paranoia," etc.), not only because it's far more contagious, but is also more unknown in its consequences -- already looks a lot deadlier than other influenza strains (10x deadlier than normal flu) -- and we no longer have a tight border against Asia -- indeed, a wide-open border with China.<br /><br />If we had not taken these aggressive "paranoid" measures, we would see millions dead in America at the least, by the end of the pandemic (which has only just gotten started -- those 70K figures from 1957-58 are covering a much longer time than the first few months).agnostichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12967177967469961883noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19346366.post-40655219633461101942020-03-16T14:51:29.178-04:002020-03-16T14:51:29.178-04:00The 1957 Asian flu epidemic killed 70,000 American...The 1957 Asian flu epidemic killed 70,000 Americans, according to Wikipedia. I expect the COVID 19 total in the U.S. will ultimately be much less. Ask a Boomer if they remember this epidemic: they almost certainly don't. It seems what we are dealing with is not so much a question of reality as perception.John Q Publichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01032887693183393049noreply@blogger.com