tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19346366.post2011777791422851000..comments2024-03-27T23:28:20.274-04:00Comments on Face to Face: Why would you be more out and about in a more dangerous world?agnostichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12967177967469961883noreply@blogger.comBlogger13125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19346366.post-55784412791184006162011-06-08T16:27:54.669-04:002011-06-08T16:27:54.669-04:00Agnostic, I wasn't making an unemployment ->...Agnostic, I wasn't making an unemployment -> crime argument, I was making a people being at home -> fewer burglaries point. The direction of causation is pretty clear. It's very not obvious how a decline in burglaries could make people stay home. It is pretty clear how people being at home could deter burglars. By looking at what happened first, more nesting or less crime, we can figure out whether nesting caused a decrease in cime or not.robnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19346366.post-45886916091530130422011-06-07T02:06:11.092-04:002011-06-07T02:06:11.092-04:00Also, Epstein is a moron for suggesting that paren...Also, Epstein is a moron for suggesting that parental obsession about child-rearing is a new thing. What's the most popular baby book? And when was it first released, becoming an instant best-seller? Dr. Spock, when Epstein was 9.<br /><br />Since he's so clueless about such a basic fact bearing on his argument, it's hard to take much of the rest of his article seriously.<br /><br />That and his bizarre mixture of au courant PC silliness, like three uses of the parenthetical "...(or her)", with Britishisms like "jolly" and "bugger off," despite growing up entirely within Chicago.agnostichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12967177967469961883noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19346366.post-3468736162689145062011-06-07T02:01:33.514-04:002011-06-07T02:01:33.514-04:00Epstein was raised in an upper-middle class Chicag...Epstein was raised in an upper-middle class Chicago family headed by first-generation Jewish immigrants, which doesn't tell us much about what America looked like back then.<br /><br />I'm not even sure how much his example tells us about his own group at the time -- Radio Days and Brighton Beach Memoirs don't show people with large social networks, ranging over a wide space, or having an adventuresome spirit.<br /><br />Nor does any other look back at those times, as far as I know (A Christmas Story does not, for instance). We don't see the unanimous opinion, spontaneously and constantly expressed, from those who grew up from the '60s through the '80s about how independent we were.<br /><br />The first year that this image found an audience was probably 1955, when Rebel Without a Cause came out. Dopey as it is, it does show a more growing-up-sooner and ranging-all-over cohort of young people. That would also fit the observation that trust and covering more space precedes the crime rate, which is evident during the decline phase of both.<br /><br />An easier way to see how the averages of two time periods compare is to look indirectly at the tails. Where there roving hordes of young people all over in the 1940s? No. But there were during the first crime wave of the 20th C, as well as the second one. Divide it by the size of the young population and the point remains.<br /><br />And it's hard to know what to make of Epstein's anecdotes. Mostly he's contrasting cold vs. warm parental attitudes. Although he did get to ride public transit into Chicago, it's not clear how often that was or how broadly he went. Most of his childhood sounds like it was spent listening to the radio and playing just on his block.<br /><br />My cohort used to ride our bikes easily a mile away from where we lived without telling our parents. It sounds like Epstein only got that kind of freedom in high school.agnostichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12967177967469961883noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19346366.post-49525234232404534912011-06-06T09:46:39.994-04:002011-06-06T09:46:39.994-04:00Hmm, that second link has a link that no longer di...Hmm, that second link has a link that no longer directs to the article itself, which I can't find online anymore.TGGPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11017651009634767649noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19346366.post-10952713959788486452011-06-06T09:41:09.630-04:002011-06-06T09:41:09.630-04:00I was actually recalling this article by Joseph Ep...I was actually recalling <a href="http://www.weeklystandard.com/Content/Public/Articles/000/000/015/161yutrk.asp" rel="nofollow">this article</a> by Joseph Epstein, who refers to his cohort "people born around the late 1930s and through the 1940s". The bit about not expecting your parents to attend your ballgames I've heard from a number of other accounts from that time. John Podhoretz gives a later generation's account of high crime New York <a href="http://www.stat.columbia.edu/~cook/movabletype/archives/2010/07/life_in_new_yor.html" rel="nofollow">here</a>.TGGPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11017651009634767649noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19346366.post-67736004048459210402011-06-06T02:04:12.692-04:002011-06-06T02:04:12.692-04:00"Weren't the 60s/70s the era of "whi..."Weren't the 60s/70s the era of "white flight" to the suburbs and sun states? Those people evidently did not believe it was dangerous everywhere and pointless to try avoiding it."<br /><br />I said "spectrum." And it's clear I'm talking more about the territory you cover by walking, biking, brief car trips, public transit, etc. They may have set up their base in the suburbs, but within the range reachable by the above means, they went just about everywhere.<br /><br />"The accounts I've heard of growing up in the 50s is that kids ran about everywhere with negligible adult supervision."<br /><br />Make sure to ask them precisely what years, as most of these accounts equate the two or three years of 1958 and 1959 (maybe '57) with the 1950s. If pushed, they might actually remember that, oh yeah, that was 1962.<br /><br />By labeling the period 1967-1972 as The Sixties, Boomers have fooled themselves (and everyone after them) into thinking that, logically, the years 1966 and before were The Fifties.<br /><br />So no one associates Stand By Me, The Sandlot, or American Graffiti with rising-crime times, even though they all take place from 1959 through the early 1960s -- just not The Sixties.agnostichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12967177967469961883noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19346366.post-51814585806863048682011-06-06T01:56:58.665-04:002011-06-06T01:56:58.665-04:00"Coupled with the natural human endorphine se..."Coupled with the natural human endorphine seeking nature, you have recipe for greater awareness of "excitement" elsewhere"<br /><br />Do you remember how oppressively boring it was to stay at home back then? "Hey kids, you wanna come see a dead boy?" All right! Not to mention all those legendary spots that got more coverage when they wanted to warn you away -- houses where some crazy guy killed his wife, a field where supposedly some Satanic gang sacrificed their victims, etc.<br /><br />"If there is a correlation between rising crime and increased numbers of military personnel"<br /><br />I've been meaning to look into that, but haven't yet. I don't think it's so much about the raw numbers of soldiers that changes so radically, but their attitude and outlook, something I covered not too long ago about portrayals of war during rising or falling crime times (like Vietnam vs. WWII movies).agnostichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12967177967469961883noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19346366.post-62268902891313786062011-06-06T01:52:42.270-04:002011-06-06T01:52:42.270-04:00"or did people start hunkering down, and then..."or did people start hunkering down, and then the crime rate dropped?"<br /><br />Based on what I've seen so far, people hunkered down and lowered their trust levels, then crime peaked at most 5 years later.<br /><br />"when unemployment in an area goes up, burglaries and related crimes decline because more people are at home during the day."<br /><br />In general, you can't see economic changes by looking at changes in the crime rates. The burglary rate may have some small response to recessions in time of out-and-about people (there are dips in the mid-'70s and early '80s). But the overall swing up and down does not relate to any economic variables.<br /><br />"Convenience stores stay on the street, and become relatively more attractive to rob."<br /><br />Relatively, yes, so they might make up a larger percentage of robberies when people are inside. But the overall level of robberies is more dependent on how much of a "crime pays" vibe the criminals sense in the environment.<br /><br />So even today when most people are inside and there would be few witnesses, robbers don't bother as much with convenience stores because they sense that it's too hard for crime in general to pay.<br /><br />"things like tagging and other vandalism depend on culture/zeitgeist. "<br /><br />I'll have something soon on spray-painting and other vandalism, but that too went alone with violent crime, which as you note shows that a good amount of crime is not related to economics.agnostichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12967177967469961883noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19346366.post-67662723509529728752011-06-05T21:23:55.380-04:002011-06-05T21:23:55.380-04:00Weren't the 60s/70s the era of "white fli...Weren't the 60s/70s the era of "white flight" to the suburbs and sun states? Those people evidently did not believe it was dangerous everywhere and pointless to try avoiding it. The accounts I've heard of growing up in the 50s is that kids ran about everywhere with negligible adult supervision.TGGPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11017651009634767649noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19346366.post-7274113821236511452011-06-05T12:37:14.972-04:002011-06-05T12:37:14.972-04:00TWo non-scientific posits:
As crime goes up, ther...TWo non-scientific posits:<br /><br />As crime goes up, there are more news stories on the local stations and in the local papers about that crime and also about community rehibilitation, troubled-youth outreach programs, and other areas of interest that do more co-mingling of classes/races and geographies. Coupled with the natural human endorphine seeking nature, you have recipe for greater awareness of "excitement" elsewhere and social acceptance for adults - it's okay to be there - or even rebellion on the part of youths - it's not okay to be there, so I'm going.<br /><br />If there is a correlation between rising crime and increased numbers of military personnel (I can't remember seeing your numbers on this), then there is a greater demographic cross-section pulled together through their service. This observation and extrapolation comes from a recent change in my life. I have joined the Army National Guard (6 years prior Air National Guard in late 90's), and as an educated, well-paid, white guy, I stick out like a sore thumb. But, I am accepted and my new friends are pulling me to local areas and events I would have otherwise never sought out. My family is now being exposed directly and indirectly, increasing the overall effect. Given what I'm seeing in my own life, I'm assuming a greater number of military members across the country would multiply the effect. I'm not saying it's a huge factor, but something to add to the overall numbers.Camel Feethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16710755600126093475noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19346366.post-15540871849514986292011-06-05T07:45:47.411-04:002011-06-05T07:45:47.411-04:00When violence rates plummet, you find people locki...<i>When violence rates plummet, you find people locking themselves in their homes and generally hunkering down -- what are they so afraid of when the outside world has become so peaceful?</i><br /><br />Why, when crime rates are the lowest they've been in decades, is the per capita prison population so high? Mauamaur Kquadafie is paranoid and psychotic, how did he stay in power for so long? Res ipsa loquitur.<br /><br />A bit more seriously, is the data you're using good enough to tell if the drop in crime rates preceded the uptick in homebody-ness(I'll call it nesting, just to have a sorta not as awkward term) or did people start hunkering down, and then the crime rate dropped? The second is possible, IIRC, when unemployment in an area goes up, burglaries and related crimes decline because more people are at home during the day.<br /><br />There might be some ways to tease it out. Compare rates of crimes that nesting makes easier, harder, and doesn't effect. If people started nesting more, but criminality stayed pretty constant, we'd see muggings drop off, just not as many targets out. Convenience stores stay on the street, and become relatively more attractive to rob. Daytime crime should be comparatively less responsive to nesting cuz even introvert couch potatoes have to work. Crime at night, that probably depends on how much people go out. Crimes without much economic incentive might be interesting to look at, things like tagging and other vandalism depend on culture/zeitgeist. You're a smart guy, there are prolly a ton of crime categories that would be reasonable to compare.robnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19346366.post-64530294421338733172011-06-04T16:53:20.614-04:002011-06-04T16:53:20.614-04:00That's one reason why people would spend more ...That's one reason why people would spend more time out, but what I'm looking at here is more the range over physical space (will you visit this area or not?), as well as over social space (will you go near this group of people or not?).<br /><br />There are only a fixed number of hours for you to spend in a typical month. It wasn't only that during rising-crime times people spent more of them out of the home, but spread over a much broader area of physical and social space.<br /><br />Whereas people now concentrate those hours more within a narrow physical space (usually the home) and social space (the "great sort" or echo chamber shift, where no one meets anyone from different walks of life anymore).agnostichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12967177967469961883noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19346366.post-12048908846332099132011-06-04T09:06:48.526-04:002011-06-04T09:06:48.526-04:00Do you think part of being out and about during ri...Do you think part of being out and about during rising crime times might also be the mentality that you need to 'live it up and enjoy life now' because there 'may be no tomorrow.' Particularly it might be an increased drive to seek mating opportunities; when the specter of Death looms we need to make sure there's another generation to pass the torch to.ZJhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01841829552748945987noreply@blogger.com